Tampa's Success Against Southpaws Prompts Pick on Rays +170

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, August 19, 2015 3:41 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2015 3:41 PM UTC

Join us in reading Wednesday’s betting preview for Tampa Bay and Houston's American League clash, which concludes with a money line pick that will surprise many.

Intriguing Matchup at Minute Maid on Wednesday
The Rays and Astros play the third of a four game series on Wednesday. The first pitch at Minute Maid Field in Houston is slated for 8:10 PM ET. These teams split the first two games with Tampa Bay winning 9-2 on Monday, and Houston coming out on top 3-2 yesterday. The Rays will go with right-hander Nate Karns today. While Houston counters with southpaw Dallas Keuchel.


Rays Profitable against Southpaws
Granted that Tampa Bay will be facing one of the premier pitchers in the American League tonight, but they’ve proven to be tough when cast into this exact role. The Rays are 21-13 versus southpaw starting pitchers in 2015, compared to a less than impressive 38-47 against righties. Consider the fact they faced a pretty good left-hander in Houston’s Scott Kazmir on Monday, and torched him for 6 earned runs on 9 hits in just 5 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay has averaged 5.0 runs and 12.0 hits per game during their previous five contests. According to current MLB odds at Bovada, Tampa Bay is a +170 money line road underdog today. The Rays have gone an extremely profitable 9-4 this year as a money line road underdog of +125 to +175. Hypothetically if you risked $100 on Tampa Bay in each one of those thirteen games, it would’ve resulted in a net profit of $870. Nate Karns has posted a stellar 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eleven road starts this year for Tampa Bay.


Astros have prospered at Home
In one of the more unusual home/away splits of 2015, Houston has gone an outstanding 41-20 (.672) at home and a terrible 24-35 (.407) in away games. One of the reasons they’ve done so well at Minute Maid Park has been the pitching performances of Dallas Keuchel. The Astros left-hander has gone 11-2 in his team starts at home with an excellent 1.26 ERA. Despite those dominating numbers, there’s a red flag waving briskly in regards to Keuchel and his start tonight. He’s gone 0-4 in his career team starts versus Tampa Bay with a lofty 5.40 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and all of those outings have taken place since 2013. Another warning sign involves the Astros as a team. They’ve gone a dismal 9-19 this season following a game in which they scored 3 runs or less.


Summary and Pick
There’s a very interesting betting pattern pertaining to this game tonight. The Astros opened as a -190 money line favorite across the board. However, despite currently 53.4% of public money being wagered on Houston, they’ve dropped from that money line opener to as low as -177 at both Pinnacle and 5Dimes.

MLB Pick: Tampa Bay +170 at Bovada.

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