New York sends an All-Star to the mound for a rubber match with the Giants in San Francisco today, but this handicapper is leaning against the Mets, and toward the Giants, who just celebrated the return of possibly their most important player.
Mets-Giants Wednesday Betting Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on New York and Jake deGrom was the -107 offered at several shops, including Pinnacle, while San Francisco and Jake Peavy could be found getting +106 at BetOnline. And every book we sampled listed a total on today's game at 6.5 runs, with the excess grease leaning toward the OVER.
These teams have split the first two games of this series, by identical scores of 3-0. New York got a quality start from Jon Niese Monday night, then scored three times in the ninth for its victory, while San Francisco got a quality start from Matt Cain and a couple of RBI from the recently returned Hunter Pence Tuesday night.
At 43-42 New York trails division-leading Washington by 3.5 games in the NL East, while at 43-42 Frisco trails the division-leading Dodgers by four games in the NL West. And both teams are four games behind the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
The Giants have taken three of five games from the Mets this season, with the UNDERS going 3-2.
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game from last August, a 4-2 New York victory.
Peavy (0-3, 6.43) is only one-for-three on quality starts this season, but one-for-one since returning to the rotation after missing 10 weeks with a bad back. Last Friday he held Washington to two runs and three hits, although he walked four, through 6 1/3 innings of a game the Giants eventually lost 2-1. On the season Peavy has allowed 15 hits through 14 innings, with eight walks and 11 strikeouts. San Francisco is 0-3 in Peavy's starts, with the OVERS going 2-1.
Peavy started once against New York last season, allowing four runs and four hits through seven innings of that 4-2 Giants loss.
All-Star deGrom (8-6, 2.30) is 12-for-16 on quality starts this year, and just had a string of eight in row snapped when he gave up three ER in 5 1/3 innings against the Cubs last Thursday. Prior to that deGrom had allowed a total of eight ER over his previous 58 2/3 innings. For the season deGrom has allowed just 82 hits through 106 innings, walked 20 and whiffed 102; the Mets are 9-7 in deGrom's starts, with the totals going 8-7.
In his only career start against the Giants, in that game last August, deGrom held them to two runs and four hits through 7 1/3 innings, with seven strikeouts.
Wednesday's Batting Splits
San Francisco ranks fifth in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .324 team on-base percentage, while New York ranks 27th against righties with a .297 team OBP.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at AT&T Park this season are 25-16 on the UNDERS, averaging 6.9 runs per.
Mets-Giants Free Picks
deGrom owns the edge in the pitching match-up, but San Francisco owns an edge with the sticks. And the Giants are 13-5 this season in games Pence has started. So we like Frisco in this spot. Also, our guess is runs might be hard to come by today, so we're thinking UNDER for our MLB picks as well.