Take Padres on the Run Line Over Rockies in Series Opener

Darin Zank

Monday, August 11, 2014 1:00 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 11, 2014 1:00 PM UTC

San Diego has been playing some good ball as of late, and will try to continue doing so when it opens a three-game series with fading Colorado at Petco Park Monday night (10:10 pm ET). Here begins our coverage of this series, with free MLB picks and updated pitching match-ups to come.

Rockies-Padres Betting Lines
As of early Monday morning the best price we could find on San Diego with rookie righty Jesse Hahn was the -149 offered at BetOnline, while Colorado and Jordan Lyles could be found at +142 at 5Dimes.

And most books were listing the total on Monday's game at 6.5 runs.

The Padres could also be bet at around +160 giving a run and a half on the run line.

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Series Set-Up
San Diego just took two of three games in Pittsburgh over the weekend, winning Sunday 8-2. The Padres are 3-0-1 over their last four series, winning eight of their last 11 games. At 54-62 the Pads are a solid third in the NL West, 11.5 games behind first-place Los Angeles. They're also 7.5 games behind Pittsburgh in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Colorado, meanwhile, just lost two of three at Arizona over the weekend, avoiding the sweep with a 5-3 victory Sunday. The Rockies have lost their last four series and 11 of their last 14 games. At 46-71 the Rocks are playing out the string on this season.

Colorado leads this season series six games to four, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' by a 7-3 margin.

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Monday's Starters
Hahn (7-3, 2.28) is 7/10 on quality starts since joining the Big Leagues back in June. Last time out he gave up three runs – all on a homer with two outs in the sixth – through 5 2/3 innings against the Twins, and over his last four starts he's given up just six runs through 24 2/3 innings.

On the season Hahn has allowed just 38 hits in 59 innings, walked 25 and struck out 57. San Diego is 7-3 in Hahn's starts, with the totals going 4-5.

This will be Hahn's first-ever start against Colorado.

Lyles (6-1, 3.72) will be making his second start since a stint on the DL with a broken finger (on his non-throwing hand). Last Wednesday he gave up four runs and six hits in six innings of a  Rockies victory over the Cubs.

On the season Lyles is 7/13 on quality starts, allowing 70 hits in 75 innings, with 27 walks and 54 strikeouts. Colorado is 7-6 in games Lyles has started, with the totals leaning 'over' 9-4.

Lyles has already started twice against San Diego this season, giving up nine runs and 11 hits, walking eight, in just 8 1/3 innings; the Rockies lost both those games, and both games played 'over' the totals.


The Pens
In the comparison of the bullpens in this series San Diego ranks second in ERA at 2.32, with 29 saves in 35 chances. And even since trading closer Huston Street the Padres pen has still been tough. On the other end of the spectrum Colorado's pen ranks 29th in ERA at 4.93, with 19 saves and 18 blown saves.

Advantage – San Diego.


With the Sticks
Colorado ranks third in team OBP at .328, third in homers with 131 and third in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. But with a couple of key cogs missing from the lineup recently the Rockies have been held to three runs or less in seven of their last 13 games.

San Diego ranks dead last in OBP at .286, 28th in homers with 82 and last in scoring at 3.2 RPG. But the Pads bats have been better lately, scoring 51 runs over their last 11 games.


Rocks-Pads Betting Trends
Colorado is a ML-worst 18-41 on the road this season.

San Diego is 31-27 at home.

The Padres have skewed hard toward the 'unders' this season by a 71-40 margin, and games played at Petco Park have leaned toward the 'unders' 34-22.


Injury update
Colorado slugger Carlos Gonzalez has been placed on the DL with a sore knee, and SS Troy Tulowitzki was already on the DL with a bad hip. No wonder the Rockies have gone in the tank.

San Diego, meanwhile, is playing without Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin and Everth Cabrera, but then again, that's nothing new.


Free Pick for Monday
We'll give Hahn the advantage in the pitching match-up, and San Diego is simply the hotter team. And since we like to take chances we'll go with the Padres on the run line, getting +161 at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick on this series opener. 

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