Take Cardinals -1 ½ R vs. Diamondbacks for Friday's Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 26, 2014 1:31 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 26, 2014 1:31 PM UTC

MLB Fall ball has been a bonanza once again for this handicapper.  In the month of September, he stands 15-6, including 9-2 (82%), plus 31% of bankroll. The following pick is the top play of the day.

St. Louis Cardinals (Wacha) (-1 ½ R, -105) vs. Arizona D’Backs (Cahill) 9:40 ET
As many MLB bettors will know, St. Louis has lost 3 of 4 this week, including consecutive losses to the Cubs.  As a result, they cling to a 1 game lead over the Pirates for the division lead as they enter the final weekend of play.  St. Louis is a veteran playoff team with a strong history of resiliency. Since the beginning of 2013, St. Louis is 87-49, following a defeat, including 42-29 this season. 

The chances of St. Louis solidifying their division title are enhanced by their opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Arizona checks in with the worst record in MLB at 63-96 and the fewest home wins in the National League with a 32-46 mark.  The D’Backs -128 run differential is easily the worst in the National League. 

Since returning from the DL (shoulder), Wacha has been slow to round into form.  Those issues, however, pale in comparison to the work of his mound opponent, Cahill, in terms of YTD performance, current form, and his performance from this mound.  For the season, Cahill is 3-12 with a 5.55 ERA.  In 51 1/3 IP from this mound, that ERA zooms to 6.84 with a 1.64 WHIP and a .296 BAA.  In fact in 9 home starts, Cahill is 1-5 with a 6.90 ERA.  The current form for Cahill is even worse.  Arizona has cashed just 1/5 of his recent starts.  The most recent 5 starts for Cahill have spanned only 22 IP, in which he has allowed 24 runs on 28 hits for a 9.41 ERA. 

Those placing MLB picks on the run line take note, in the last 5 years, 151 of 197 St. Louis road wins have come by 2 or more runs.  This season, 34 of 46 Arizona home losses have come by 2 or more runs. 

We line up with confidence playing a resilient St. Louis team with the veteran poise and presence to close out their division championship against the worst team in the National League, on the weakest home field.  We do so with a notable advantage on the pitchers mound, as well as a strong history of run line road dominance by St. Louis over the previous 5 years.   

Free MLB Pick: St. Louis (-1 ½ R, -105) at Pinnacle

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