Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.
Look for the visiting team with the pitching edge to prevail for the second straight night Tuesday when Shelby Miller and those Atlanta Braves (26-25, 14-15 away) again pay a visit to fellow right-hander Josh Collmenter and the Arizona Diamondbacks (23-27, 11-14 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET in a game available on Sports South.
The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Atlanta as a very slight favorite for this contest at current odds of -106.
Blowout Win in Series Opener
The Braves continued to outperform preseason expectations in the series opener Monday, taking advantage of the tired Diamondbacks as we predicted in an 8-1 rout in which Arizona starter Archie Bradley was allowed to go five innings while allowing five earned runs on eight hits after the bullpen had worked 11.1 total innings on Sunday. The win drew the Braves to within 2½ games of the Nationals and Mets, who are tied for first in the National League East.
The Diamondbacks dropped to four games below .500 at 23-27, although they are still an improved team over the one that finished as the worst MLB pick in baseball at 64-98 last year, currently sitting seven games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers while in fourth place in the National League West. Arizona is still having trouble winning at home however, now standing at 11-14 in Phoenix.
Miller Loving New Surroundings
Miller has spent his first three Major League seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, but he has not minded the change in scenery in his first season with the Braves going 5-2 with a spiffy 1.48 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with an excellent command ratio of 49 strikeouts vs. 18 walks in 67 innings. His second loss came in his last start vs. the San Francisco Giants, but Miller was not to blame allowing one run on five hits in seven innings.
Thus, not only does Miller now have eight consecutive official Quality Starts, but he has also amazingly allowed two earned runs or less in all 10 of his starts this year! Sure the Diamondbacks have been hitting the ball well lately, but their lowest average split this year remains vs. right-handed pitchers here at home, where they are batting only .245 against them.
Miller has not faced the Diamondbacks since his only career start against them in 2013, when he allowed two run on six hits in six innings with nine strikeouts and not a single walk.
Collmenter Ineffective at Home
Collmenter has been with Arizona since first coming up in the Major Leagues in 2011 and he has always been serviceable if not spectacular with some very nice moments and also some moments where he can look like the worst pitcher in baseball. Unfortunately he has had more of the latter so far this season at 3-5 with a 5.05 ERA, and he is winless in his last four outings at 0-2 with two no-decisions with an ugly 8.83 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over those efforts.
Josh has been particularly bad here at Chase Field this season, going 1-4 with a lofty 6.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his home stadium.
He has yet to face the Braves this year but he was terrible in his only start against them last season allowing five earned runs on 11 hits in just six innings. He is also facing an Atlanta offense that is picking things up as of late vs. right-handed pitchers batting .270 while averaging 5.29 runs against them over the last five games. The Braves have also scored 23 runs overall during their current three-game winning streak.
The Diamondbacks have dropped five of their last seven games overall with the only two wins during this span coming vs. a Milwaukee Brewers’ team that currently owns the worst record in all of baseball at 18-34.
With the win here last night, the Braves are now 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams overall.
Given this pitching matchup, look for Atlanta to now make it 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with Arizona in the second game of this series in Phoenix on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Braves -106