Take Blue Jays -1 ½ R, +130 Over Astros Thursday

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, July 31, 2014 4:15 PM GMT

When you play this game, you will be doing so knowing that you have the benefit of a 90% historical situation (over 55 games) on your side. Combined with the fundamentals of two teams and two pitchers headed opposite direction, this sets up as your Top of the Ticket Play! No need to leave anything in the bag when you make this MLB pick. You can take off the rubber band! 

Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison) (-1 ½ R, +130) at Houston Astros (Cosart) 8:10 ET

5% Toronto (-1 ½ R, +130)

Today's MLB pick one of my rare 5% of bankroll plays for personal clientele.  The MLB runs on these games currently stands at 27-11, 21-8 and 15-4.  At an underdog price, we look to make this play with confidence.  Earlier this season, Toronto had a 21-4 run, which was keyed by powerful and timely hitting.  The inevitable dip came on a 13-25 slide.  Since that time, however, the Blue Jays have gone 10-2, averaging 6.2 RPG.  Despite taking 2 out of 3 from Oakland in the first part of this week, the Astros remain on a 12-25 slide.  Despite an improvement from last season, they remain one of the worst teams in MLB with a 44-64 record.  That includes just 23-32 on this field. 

Backing our play, is a dichotomous pitching matchup.  Nowhere is that more true than in the divergent home/road splits for Toronto starter, Hutchison.  Struggling to survive from his home mound, the work of Hutchison on the road has been most encouraging.  In 13 road starts, over 82 1/3/ IP, Hutchison has a 2.95 ERA.  Hutchison pitched a nice return to form game in a 6-4 victory vs. NYY in his most recent start.  In 6 2/3 IP, he allowed just 2 runs and 5 hits.  

The numbers for Cosart are not as nearly as encouraging.  In his previous 4 starts, over 21 2/3 IP, Cosart has allowed 21 runs on 32 hits with a disturbing 13/14 KBB good for an 8.02 ERA.  Nine home starts, over 54 IP, have resulted in a 4.67 ERA for Cosart.  With current form matching the inverted home/road dichotomy, we will clearly have the best of it on the mound in this starting pitching matchup. 

Of equal significance today is the run line numbers for these two teams.  Run line players will note, that 26 of 29 Toronto road wins (that’s 90 %!) have come by 2 or more runs.  For Houston, 26 of 32 home losses have come by 2 or more runs.  We confidently play the run line in this one with a value-laden underdog price as a Top Play. Every day since 1979, I have drawn the treasure map for you.  The task with which I entrust you is to have enough faith in my analysis and selections to follow the map.  Win or lose, you get my best effort every day with the reasons why.   

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