Take Advantage Of MLB Picks On Run Line For Dodgers & Braves

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, April 19, 2016 6:19 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 19, 2016 6:19 PM GMT

Our expert handicapper explains how the run line makes Los Angeles Dodgers an easy profitable MLB pick vs. Atlanta Braves this Tuesday night.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

Despite the decreased scoring this year, 130 of 182 (71.4%) of MLB games have been decided by 2 or more runs. Yet, the linemaker continues to adjust the run line based on decreased scoring. This presents us even greater value than normal when making our “run line dog plays.”. More on how that applies to a specific matchup in a moment.  

 

Los Angeles Dodgers
Each of these teams is where they were expected to be in the standings. After 13 games, the Dodgers are 8-5, outscoring the opposition 65-41. The (+24) net differential trails only the Cubs and the Cards for the greatest margin in MLB. At the other end of the spectrum sit the Atlanta Braves, who are 3-9 being outscored 67-42. That net negative differential is better than only the Milwaukee Brewers. After a 0-9 start, Atlanta enters on a 3-game winning streak, after scoring 6 runs in 3 consecutive games at Miami. But when facing quality teams (like these Dodgers) in the persons of Washington and St. Louis, the Braves have been outscored 55-24. 

 

Atlanta Braves
I would normally be hesitant about fading Teheran, especially on this field, where he performed admirably last year. This year, however, Teheran is off to a horrendous start, including 2 recent games in which he is 0-2, working 11 IP, allowing 11 runs and 12 hits. Life does not figure to improve much for the Atlanta ace against a Dodgers team vs. whom he is 0-4 with a 6.08 ERA. His mound competitor tonight, Wood, comes off a solid start in which he worked 7 IP, allowing 1 run on 5 hits in a 3-1 victory vs. Arizona. Pitching in his home town against a team who traded him provides all the incentive Wood needs for tonight’scontest. 

 

Betting Analysis
Now back to that run line history! Last year, 69 of 92 (75%) LA Dodger wins were by 2 or more runs, including 29 of 37 (78%) on the road. That lifted the Dodgers’ road run line record to 147 of 192 (77%) in the previous 5 years by 2 or more runs. That is a solid long-term history. This year, 7 of 8 total LA Dodger wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 3 of 4 on the road. For Atlanta, in the last 2 years, 68 of 78 (87%) home losses have come by 2 or more runs, including 37 of 39 (95%) last year.  Holding true to that form, 7 of 9 Atlanta losses this year have been by 2 or more runs, including 4 of 5 on this field. Lay it with confidence on the run line plus the price with the Dodgers today. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the LA Dodgers tonight. If you're interested on grabbing more profitable MLB picks, take a look at our choices for the day!

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Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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