Tail the Sharks & Eat the Chalk: Tigers vs. Mariners MLB Picks

Mark Lathrop

Monday, July 6, 2015 3:23 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 6, 2015 3:23 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper has spotted a line moving against public consensus, which is a great indicator of sharp money movement. Read below to see which way to lean in Monday's Seattle vs. Detroit MLB matchup.

Tigers vs. Mariners Betting Odds Preview
The Detroit Tigers visit the Seattle Mariners on Monday night after Toronto shelled Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Sunday en route to a 10-5 loss. The Tigers are 3rd in the AL Central with a 41-40 record, six games back of the Kansas City Royals. There are already rumblings that the Tigers could be sellers at the trade deadline, but I think that is premature for a team with a winning record. Seattle’s offense did enough to scrap together two runs in Oakland on Sunday and Mike Montgomery continued his hot start as the M’s won 2-1 to split the four game series. The line on this game opened at -137 favoring Seattle at home with the O/U total listed at 7 at multiple books.

The weather will be quite hot for the Pacific Northwest, with highs in the 90’s F today. The heat should mitigate any park factors usually seen in the thick Seattle marine layer.

Detroit will be playing its second series without perennial All-Star, Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera went on the DL for the first time in his career with a calf strain on Saturday, after hitting .350 with 15 HR and 54 RBIs over the first half of the season. The loss of Cabrera will be a big blow to this Tigers squad for the next six weeks. The internal candidates to replace the first baseman are Alex Avila (batting .200 with four career games at 1B), Andrew Romine (.314 AVG, 2 HR, eight games at 1B), and recent call-up Jefry Marte. All of these replacement candidates are huge question marks at the plate and have next to no experience playing the position defensively.

The Tigers will need all of the offense they can get, as their pitching staff has been terribad of late. Their team ERA is third worst in the AL at 4.15. In six games last week, they gave up an astounding 41 runs on 76 hits. Giving up over seven runs a game isn’t going to cut it. The starter for this game, Alfredo Simon, has been part of the problem as he has given up 18 ER over his last 3 starts.

Seattle should be happy to get a healthy Hisashi Iwakuma back in this start, as he has been out with a lat strain since April 20th. He wasn’t pitching well in April, but I think we need to discount all of his 2015 statistics due to the nature of that injury. Iwakuma’s career numbers against Detroit are very good, as he has posted a 2.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .217 BAA in three starts. Detroit slugger, Yoenis Cespedes, gives Iwakuma fits, as he is 10-24 with 3 HR against the extreme ground ball pitcher. The other Detroit slugger who hits Iwakuma well is, of course, Miguel Cabrera.


Baseball Betting Verdict
Smart money is all over the Seattle money line in this game. After opening at -137, the line has swung all the way to -163 at Pinnacle. How can you tell this is smart money? Because the money line movement is going against public consensus, which proves the big dogs are swaying the line over the Average Joe. You can see this action for yourself on the MLB Odds for Tigers vs. Mariners. The sharks usually know something the public doesn’t, so I’m going to tail them, eat the chalk, and take Seattle as part of my Monday MLB Picks.

The MLB Pick:  Mariners on the Money Line

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