Tackle Saturday's MLB Action & Cash Out the Books with These Run Line Picks

Doug Upstone

Saturday, June 27, 2015 1:40 PM GMT

It is the last Saturday of June and by now the barbeque and outside activities should be in full gear. Also, the MLB odds are rather sharp which means baseball handicappers have to even better.

This can certainly be done with diligence, expertise and some luck and we have all three elements going against the sportsbooks in nailing 10 of 12 this week on the run line. Let's see what we can do on Saturday to stay hot with MLB picks.

 

Nationals vs. Phillies: Washington Frustrates Philly Again Behind Gonzalez
The Nationals took care of business last night against Philadelphia 5-2 behind Max Scherzer and looks to do the same with Gio Gonzalez (5-4, 4.41 ERA) this afternoon. Washington has won seven straight and it's heralded starting pitching is doing what many thought they were capable of and they have a silly 0.53 ERA with three runs conceded in last 51 1/3 innings.

Gonzalez was a participant in this stretch in his last time out, but pitching on the road has been more of a challenge for the left-hander with 5.89 ERA this season. He will take on Adam Morgan (1-0, 1.59), who will try to build on a quality major league debut Sunday in which he shut down St. Louis on six hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-2 victory.

The run line betting odds are definitely shaded compared to the money line on Washington at -105 (-1.5) compared to -170 on the ML, but the lack of value will not scare us off because it is about winning and road favorites with a money line of -125 or more , who own a 54% to 62% record playing a team that wins less than 38 percent of their games, are 88-28 the past five seasons and mostly importantly, winning by 2.3 runs per contest.

MLB Pick: Nationals -1.5

For more betting options, don't miss our free MLB picks of the day!

Reds vs. Mets: Ride the Reds in the Big Apple
Since June 7th, Cincinnati is 14-4 on the run line and we think they add another number in the win column today in New York. The Mets have scored more than two runs once in their last nine outings, hitting a feeble .167 as a team and we are convinced they are not going to find their stroke against Cincinnati rookie Michael Lorenzen (3-2, 3.56), who has a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts.

New York will counter with talented Matt Harvey (7-5, 3.18), who is wholly capable of limiting a Reds offense which only produces 3.6 RPG away from then Queen City.

We found very good RL odds at Wagerweb  with the Mets at +140, and favorites like New York with a ML range of +135 to -190 (New York is -170), a NL team batting average of .255 or worse, after a combined score of four runs or less in two straight games, they are 17-51 on the run line the past 18 seasons. Cincy might not win, but they will on the RL.

MLB Pick: Reds +1.5 

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Dodgers vs. Marlins: Kershaw Comes Through for Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw has never lost three in a row in the regular season and will look avoid that fate in Miami today. Kershaw is just 5-5 with 3.33 ERA and while his 11.79 strikeouts per nine innings leads the NL, his swing and miss rate is at a career-low of 32 percent. Bottom line, Kershaw is catching too much of the plate in the upper part of the zone with miscues and for now he's lost a little of his aura.

Nevertheless, the masterful left-hander has dropped consecutive starts on eight other occasions in his career and has a brilliant 1.63 ERA in his follow-up outing and with Miami averaging 2.0 RPG in losing eight of nine, you have to think the Marlins will not tally many runs.

Though Los Angeles has not played well on the road all season (15-20), they have taken three in a row in the traveling grays. Consider this when looking at the MLB odds, when Kershaw and teammates are on the road playing against club with 38% to 46% win percentage, they are 22-3 and for our concerns about the run line, winning by 3.4 RPG.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5

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