Tackle the Baseball Run Line Betting Odds with Tuesday's Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, June 23, 2015 2:25 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 23, 2015 2:25 PM UTC

Time to scrutinize Tuesday's betting board to come up with three quality run line plays. We have the sportsbooks numbers offering the best values, thus it is time to go to work as baseball handicappers.

Reds vs. Pirates: Pittsburgh Gets Back on Track in Division Play
With Johnny Cueto out and Josh Smith taking his place for Cincinnati, the Reds betting odds have been moved from -115 to +130 on the money line and the corresponding figures on the run line. That could be great news for Pittsburgh who was just swept at Washington, not having to face a pitcher of Cueto's abilities.

The MLB odds now have the Pirates at +155 on the RL (-1.5) as they will look to get their offense untracked which has scored 12 runs in their past six outings. They will face the right-hander Smith who is 4-4 with 3.04 ERA in stops both at Double-A and Triple-A this season.

Jeff Locke (4-3, 4.74 ERA) will have the assignment of locking down the Red lineup and he's tough at home having throw 16 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. This correlates with the Pirates having won six straight at PNC Park, where they are 21-11 this season. When it comes to making sports picks, like the fact the Bucs are 23-9 playing against a team with a losing record this season. winning by 1.6 runs a game and teams like Pitt with RL range of (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160), a NL team with an on-base percentage .310 or worse, after scoring three runs or less in three straight games, are 206-128 the past five years.

MLB Picks: Pirates -1.5 +160


Athletics vs. Rangers: Oakland Overvalued on Run Line
I have seen Jesse Chavez (3-6, 2.52) several times in spring training pitching for Oakland and always been impressed with how he attacks the strike zone and keeps the ball low. However, I am stunned to see Chavez and the A's such large favorites at Texas which I think adds some real value to the Rangers on the run line.

The Rangers also have a guy that can throw in Chi-Chi Gonzalez (2-1, 0.90) and his ERA after just four starts in the lowest in a decade when Kyle Davies made his Atlanta debut. In checking the MLB odds, Heritagesports had the best numbers I could find at -130 for Texas at +1.5 on the RL. This is very encouraging since Oakland is 5-14 SU having won two of their last three games and 12-18 off any victory.

The Texas offense has stumbled a bit in scoring only 2.6 runs a game, but if they are patient with Chavez and can get into that Athletics bullpen, there are ample opportunities against that crew. A little more research finds home teams in the RL range of (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160), after five straight games with less than 10 hits and the their bullpen blew a save in last outing, are 42-13 since 2011.

MLB Picks: Rangers +1.5 -130 

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White Sox vs. Twins: Minnesota Has all the Right Numbers
The Twins Mike Pelfrey (5-3, 2.97) has exceed expectations all season and at Target Field he's gone 3-0 with a 1.41 ERA in six home starts - all Minnesota victories. Tonight he faces division rival Chicago and expectations are Minnesota will score runs against the White Six.

The Twins have not had any issues with Chicago pitching hitting .282 and averaging 6.4 runs while winning eight of 11 battles. At home, Minnesota is a perfect 5-0, averaging a gigantic 8.8 RPG while batting .357 and the immediate reaction is Jeff Samardzija (4-4, 4.67) is probably not going to do enough to slow the Twinkies. With Minnesota 19-7 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and winning by two RPG, the -160 odds on the RL (-1.5) are too delectable to pass on.

MLB Picks: Twins +1.5 -160

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