System Shows St. Louis Will Win in Milwaukee

matt carpenter cardinals

Doug Upstone

Friday, April 21, 2017 2:47 PM GMT

Milwaukee had a nice come-from-behind win Thursday against visiting St. Louis, which makes betting baseball a little more challenging Friday given the pitching matchup in Game 2 of the series. 

Though St. Louis swept Pittsburgh this week, the same old problems returned Thursday in defeat. Who should you be looking at for in Game 2 of this series in Milwaukee on MLB picks?

 Pitching Matchup: Wainwight Vs. Peralta

Adam Wainwright is coming off a career-worst season, and this year has started even worse with a 7.24 ERA and hard-to-comprehend 2.20 WHIP, all leading to 0-3 record. The 35-year-old right-hander seems to losing the battle to Father Time as his pitches are not breaking as sharply or sinking as quickly and opposing batters are barreling up his tosses, permitting an unfathomable 24 hits in just 13 2/3 innings. Maybe facing Milwaukee will rekindle the magic with a 2.21 ERA and 14-8 record career. (Team's record 19-9)

After a 17-11 season in 2014 with quality 3.53 ERA, a then-24-year old Wily Peralta was expected to be a fixture in the Milwaukee rotation. Expectations and reality sometimes go their separate ways, and Peralta was so bad last season he spent almost two months in the minors. Instead of pouting, the Dominican went to work, and when he returned in August he lowered his ERA by 1.82 and only had one poor outing among his 11 final starts. Peralta has picked up where he left off with 3-0 start and 2.65 ERA, and opposing teams are hitting only .196 against him.

 

Offensive Disparity Thus Far With These Two

St. Louis came into the season thinking the addition of Dexter Fowler as a leadoff hitter would get the offense rolling. So far that is not the case, averaging a putrid 3.3 RPG. Fowler is batting .169, and the highest batting average by every-day players is Matt Carpenter and Stephen Piscotty at just .244.

Conversely, Milwaukee is scoring quite well at 4.9 runs per contest and being led by the power bats of Ryan Braun (.403 OBP and 5 home runs) and 1B Eric Thames (2.0), who has .415 BA and 8 dingers. Thames was a washout with several clubs, played three years in Korea and learned patience at the plate and has started ??? (that's hot in Korean).

 

Betting Odds, History & Bullpen Numbers

The MLB odds have St. Louis as a -117 favorite with the total at Ov8.5 (-120). Even with Thursday's victory, the Brewers are still 6-13 at Miller Park against the Cardinals in the past 19. Though Milwaukee's bullpen struggled at Wrigley Field this week, they are still a representative 7th in ERA in the NL. Conversely, the Redbirds' relievers are flat-out terrible with an ERA of 6.29, which is the worst in the senior circuit.

 

The Winner Is ...

In this contest, everything seems to be pointing to a Milwaukee win, but I'm going contrarian with St. Louis the favorite and have the system to back it up. National League teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (St. Louis), scoring 3.8 or less runs a game against a very good starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or less and who are batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games are 41-12 the last two decades.

MLB Free Pick: Cardinals -117Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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