Swinger's Scrumptious Sunday MLB Picks & Odds Analysis

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, August 10, 2014 12:56 PM GMT

Each and every Sunday Swinger looks to bust your bookmaker with his MLB picks so get ready to end your week on a winning note as he reveals his winning selection for Sunday, August 10th. 

Swinger's 2014 MLB Record (21-20-1, -5.25 units)  *Picks are rated from 1 to 5 units*
Smoked.  That's what I got last week after the Blue Jays got throttled by the Houston "Bleepin'" Astros 6-1. It was a square play to be sure as I laid -170 in MLB odds for 5 freakin' units. A max bet of all things and as you know my maximum unit plays (5 units) have not lost this season - until last Sunday. I then went for 4 units on the Jays on the run line of -1 ½ (-105). I also took the underdog Phillies +140 in MLB odds who wound up on the wrong side of a 4-0 blanking by the Nationals. My only winner of the day also happened to be of course my smallest play of the day when I clicked for 3 units on the Giants over the Mets who won in a 9-0 cakewalk. Big deal.

Okay so that was then this is now. I am left completely uninspired, after winning week after week to climb out of that cavernous hole I dug early in the season only to get clobbered last Sunday. But what am I going to do, wallow in self pity or get back on the saddle and ride this pony to victory? Personally, the pity party seems kind of enticing as it involves a lot less energy but rehab is for quitters and dammit I ain't no quitter. Let's go!

 

Mets vs. Phillies
Though I am not wild about backing road favorites I do allow exceptions and the New York "Bleepin" Mets fit that category today. Over the past three season the Mets are a staggering 20-6 in all games played AT Philadelphia cashing to the tune of +21.6 units in MLB odds

Now I will grant you that games played three seasons ago mean nothing when considering how the teams are constructed today, however those games played more frequently like the 7-1 record New York has registered playing at Citizens Bank Park this season certainly qualifies.

Add to that impressive streak Zack Wheeler's dominance on July 30th when he led the Mets to an 11-2 victory after allowing only two earned runs over six plus innings.  On the flipside we have Kyle Kendrick who has gotten battered around by the Mets over his last three starts allowing four runs in an average of five plus innings of work. 

Look, I'm not going to bet the farm on a game between two sub .500 clubs but I do like the way the Mets have played in taking the first two of a four-game set in Philadelphia. Zack Wheeler's stuff is much better than Kendrick's but it's a fickle game my friends so let's tread a bit lightly on this one.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Mets -120 for 2 units at WilliamHill.com

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Dodgers vs. Brewers
Nobody ever got rich fading great pitchers like Clayton Kershaw but when opportunity knocks you've got to greet it with a big smile and a hearty handshake. That's what I am doing here as the Brewers bats are heating up and they have handled the Dodgers in the first two games of this three-game set at Miller Park. 

Jimmy Nelson has the unfortunate assignment for the Brewers to take on Big Blue's ace Kershaw. But this sizes up to be a sound underdog in MLB odds with plenty of value.  Now value don't mean jack if it doesn't win but I believe getting a healthy return on one of the best team's in baseball in their own sandbox sounds good to me. Unfortunately, it sounds good to enough others who have already buried the books with Brewers money as LA has gone from -180 to as low as -145 in MLB odds in some (but not WilliamHill.com!) offshore books. 

Free MLB Pick: Play Milwaukee +140 for 3 units at WillaimHill.com

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Rangers vs. Astros
I hate like hell to bet good money on bad teams, but that's what I'm doing today as the Astros are trotting Dallas Keuchel to the hill today.  Keuchel has put together a nice season for himself and is facing one of the most dreadful lineups in MLB today. He has allowed only two earned runs over his last three starts and will be opposed by the Ranger's Nick Martinez who has gotten hammered in his last two starts allowing five and six earned runs to the White Sox and Yankees respectively.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Astros -160 for 4 units at WilliamHill.com.

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