Surprising Pitching Battle & Poor Offense Makes 'Under' the MLB Pick for Marlins vs. Mets

Charles Stark

Thursday, April 16, 2015 11:09 AM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 16, 2015 11:09 AM UTC

A strong pitching matchup combined with two poor offenses leads me to take the under when the Miami Marlins visit the New York Mets.  Read more here and add the under to your MLB plays.

Pitching will rule the day
Jarred Cosart for Miami and Dillon Gee for the Mets will square off in what I consider to be a better than average pitching matchup. The MLB odds makers have come out with an over under line of 7 for this game, and I think they have tried to set is low as they could for this early in the season.  I anticipate both pitchers to have solid outing and keep this total well below the number. Cosart had a good outing his first game of the year pitching six innings of one run baseball against the Tampa Bay Rays.  Since his time in Houston I have always liked him, he doesn’t strike people out a lot but he has good stuff and good location, very solid major league pitcher. In his career Cosart carries a 3.22 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, more impressively though is on the road he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, great numbers out of 41 career starts. I look for him to have another really strong outing against a pretty weak offensive team in the Mets. Dillon Gee is back in the starting rotation after Wheeler went down for most likely the season.  Last game was not a good outing for him as he gave up five runs on eight hits in five innings, but the good news about that is that it was only one bad inning where he gave up four runs, the rest of the time he pitched well and had five strikeouts. In his career Gee has 3.95 ERA and an impressive 1.29 WHIP. At home in his career those numbers improve to 3.36 and 1.24, like Cosart he is a solid major league pitcher.  Against Miami Gee has been excellent going 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Although he started the year poorly I expect him to have a nice bounce back game and keep the Marlins in check.

Fellow bettors are also sharing their MLB picks for today. Let us know which ones are yours!

Where is the offense?
Miami and New York rank 20th and 21st in runs scored this year in MLB.  They are tied at 17th for hits per game at 7.38 a contest.  They have a lot of numbers really similar to each other offensively, and none of them are particularly good.  On base percentage a bit above .300, slugging percentage just above .300 (second and third worst in the league), both teams combined batting average around .226, and total bases around 10 per game (again second and third worst in the league).  Both teams simply have not done much at the plate and I don’t anticipate them to break out tomorrow against two solid pitchers.


The line
The over under line opened at 7 with the juice above -110.  There is good reason for this because this game is most likely going to go under. My best assessment that the line isn’t lower is that the matchup is Cosart vs. Gee and not Scherzer vs. Kershaw (now that is a game I want to see!).  That name recognition can be a bit misleading.  Both Cosart and Gee are very good pitchers facing mediocre to bad offenses in the Marlins and the Mets. In my opinion that 7 is too high of a number and this game looks more like a 2-1 type contest.  Take the under with confidence for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick:  Marlins/Mets under 7 at BetOnline

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