Sure-Fire MLB Picks: Bet 'Over' at Coors Field in Cubs vs. Rockies

Darin Zank

Friday, April 10, 2015 12:19 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 10, 2015 12:19 PM UTC

Colorado, a 45/1 shot in MLB odds to win the NL West this season, is off to a 3-0 start, after sweeping a series in Milwaukee. The Rockies will try to get to 4-0 when they host the Cubs.


Cubs-Rockies Betting Odds
As of early Friday morning the best price we could find on Colorado and Tyler Matzek was the -126 offered at Heritage, while Chicago and Travis Wood could be gotten at +125 at GT Bets.

Also, the total on today's game sat at either 10 or 10.5, with varying degrees of grease.

Cubs vs. Rockies is covered in this Report on Heavy Money from Public: Fade or Shade?

Cubs-Rockies: Background
Colorado is off to a great start to this season, having just swept three games in Milwaukee earlier this week. The Rockies began with a 10-0 blanking on Monday, then won Tuesday 5-2, and Wednesday gave up a late lead but won in extra innings 5-4.

Colorado won as a +135 underdog in Monday's MLB Odds, at +115 Tuesday and at +120 Wednesday.

The Rockies trailed the Brewers Wednesday 2-0 early, rallied to take a 4-2 lead, only to see Milwaukee manufacture two runs in the bottom of the ninth off closer LaTroy Hawkins. Pinch-hitter Wilin Rosario then saved the day by bopping a solo homer in the top of the tenth, and former Brewer John Axford closed out the save.

For the series Colorado rapped out 38 hits, 18 for extra bases, while scoring 20 runs.

Chicago began this season by splitting two games at home against St. Louis. The Cubs lost the opener Sunday night 3-0, coming up empty against Adam Wainwright, then got a quality outing from starter Jake Arrieta in a 2-0 victory Wednesday. Chicago won Wednesday as a -115 favorite on the betting line, and the game, like Sunday's, easily played UNDER the total.

The Cubs have seven hits so far this season.

Chicago took the season series from Colorado last year five games to two, with the totals going 3-4.


Friday's Starters
Matzek is trying to build upon a decent 2014 rookie season in which he went 6-11 with a 4.05 ERA. The young lefty, by our tough standards, went eight-for-19 on quality starts last year, including five of his last six, gave up 120 hits in 118 innings, walked 44 and struck out 91.

Colorado only went 6-13 in Matzek's starts last season, but the totals leaned toward the UNDERS by a 9-5 margin (with five pushes, if you can believe it).

This will be Matzek's first-ever start against the Cubs.

Fellow lefty Wood is trying to bounce back after a poor 2014 in which he compiled an 8-13 record with a terrible 5.03 ERA. By our strict standards he came up with just nine quality starts out of 31 outings, gave up 190 hits in 174 innings, and posted a very mediocre K/BB ratio of 146/76.

Chicago went 15-16 in Wood's starts last year, with the totals leaning toward the OVERS by an 18-13 margin.

Wood started twice against Colorado last year, giving up seven runs and 15 hits in 12 innings. The Cubs split those two games, and both games played OVER.


2014 Betting Trends
Chicago finished 16 games under .500 last year, but went 16-18 against left-handed starters.

Before placing your MLB picks, note that Colorado finished 30 games under .500 last year, but went 23-23 against lefties.


Cubs-Rockies Free Pick
The Colorado bats are off to a hot start, banging the ball around with a healthy lineup. And the way Wood pitched last year, that Rockies lineup might be chompin' at the bit to get to the ballpark today. Also, games played at Coors Field last year led the league at well over 11 runs per game. With a little help from the Cubs today's game should go OVER the total.

Free MLB Pick: OVER 10.5 runs at Bovada

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