Sunday's MLB Totals Picks Feature a Pair of Polar Opposite Pitching Matchups

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, September 6, 2015 2:21 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 6, 2015 2:21 PM UTC

Our MLB capper shares his two top totals picks on Sunday’s card. Don’t make a move on today’s games before reading this betting preview. 

Rangers (Lewis) vs. Angels (Santiago) 3:35 PM ET
According to current MLB betting odds, has a posted total of 8.0 on this game today, and the rest of the major sportsbook landscape is at 8.5.

Hector Santiago has hit the proverbial wall in recent starts. The Angels southpaw has posted a monster 10.12 ERA during his previous three outings, and failed to reach the 5th inning in any of those starts. Santiago has seen each of his last six starts versus Texas go over the total.

Colby Lewis has been awful in his last two starts, evidenced by his large 8.43 ERA and 1.79 WHIP during those outings. Lewis has made eight starts versus the Angels since 2014, and has compiled a horrible 8.65 ERA during those appearances.


MLB Totals Angle

The Angels starter Hector Santiago has posted a 2.25 WHIP during his previous three starts & has a 3.37 ERA in twenty-six starts this year.

Any American League team (Angels) with a starting pitcher that has an ERA of 4.20 or less, and also had a WHIP of 2.00 or greater during his last three starts, has seen that team go 40-18 (69%) over the total since 2011.


MLB Pick: Rangers & Angels over 8.0 (-120) at The Greek


Pirates (Cole) vs. Cardinals (Lackey) 8:05 PM ET
Gerrit Cole will be facing an opponent (Cardinals) tonight that averages a meager 0.9 home runs per game in 2015. Cole has gone 12-4 under the total this season when facing opponents averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game. He’s also 14-5 under the number this year when the total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Pirates hurler has compiled a stellar 2.55 ERA during 14 road starts this year, and allowed only 2 home runs in 88 1/3 innings pitched.

John Lackey has a brilliant 1.89 ERA in fourteen starts at Busch Stadium this season. He’s faced Pittsburgh twice in 2015, and posted an outstanding 1.42 ERA in those outings. The Cardinals are 43-22 (66.2%) under the total at home this year, and that includes 9-1 on Sundays.

In addition to this stellar starting pitching matchup tonight, both bullpen staffs have performed superbly in 2015. I like this game to be a low scoring affair, and one of my MLB picks on Sunday will reflect that prediction. Heritage provides the best betting value for my wager.


MLB Pick: Pirates & Cardinals under 7.0 (+105) at Heritage

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