Sunday MLB Picks: Giants Getting Ready To Sweep Marlins Today

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, April 24, 2016 12:32 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 24, 2016 12:32 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper spots a lineup tailor made to give an opposing pitcher trouble and makes his Sunday MLB Pick.

2016 YTD MLB: 7-3-1, +3.80 Units

Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
On a nice little run here with MLB, which is probably the worst thing that could happen as overconfidence is a pretty quick way to deplete a bankroll. I’ll just leave a note here to always stay within your system in your wagers, whatever that may be.

The San Francisco Giants (9-10) try for a series sweep and to get back to .500 as they host the Miami Marlins (5-11) on Sunday afternoon at AT&T Park in San Francisco. After winning the first two games in the series the Giants opened at -130 at Bookmaker. The line since then has continually shifted towards Miami, and now the Giants can be had at -109 at the same book if you want to take them. The O/U total has opened at 8 across the MLB odds boards.

Starting for the San Francisco Giants is Matt Cain, who is coming off of two abbreviated starts in a row. After starting the season with a strong 6.0 inning start against the Dodgers where he took a no decision, Cain has taken two losses in a row while not getting through the first five innings in each. In his last game, Cain made it through 4.2 innings through the injury depleted lineup of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He only gave up 3 earned runs, but also gave up 5 hits and 4 free passes.

I’ve had some success picking against pitchers whose statistics tell us they are having a lucky streak in a good way. In this case, the statistics tell us that Matt Cain is pitching better than his results have ended up being. His ERA has ballooned to 6.46 over his first three starts, but his fielding independent pitching mark is 3.49. None of his advanced stats have budged at all. He is not getting hit harder, contact is the same, and balls are not getting hit out of the ballpark or pulled. There may be a mechanics issue with Cain coming back from injury, but the statistics don’t show it.

All that Cain has to do is avoid Giancarlo Stanton on Sunday. Stanton has 3 home runs off of Cain in just 20 at bats. No other Miami starter has had that kind of success off of Cain.


Betting Analysis
The Miami Marlins counter Cain with 2nd year starter, Adam Conley. Conley is coming off of a loss to the Washington Nationals, although he pitched almost to the 7th inning and struck out 8 batters. In the start before at the New York Mets, Conley pitched 6 shutout innings while striking out 9 batters. A fastball and slider pitcher, Conley is especially difficult on right handers. In his short MLB career consisting of 80.2 IP, Conley has held right handers to a .247 batting average against while he is holding left handers to a .298 batting average against. Just this season, left handers are 4 for 10 off of Conley with 5 RBI’s.

Unfortunately for Conley, the Giants lineup is full of left handers that could give him trouble. Basically, the entire Giants lineup except for Buster Posey and Hunter Pence can bat left handed.

While I understand that Conley is a hyped prospect, he does not match up well with the Giants lineup here. The Marlins offense could also be just what Cain needs to get back on track as well, as they’ve scored just three runs in this series so far. I’m taking the home team Giants, against the line move, at -106 at YouWager as my Sunday MLB pick.

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Free MLB Pick: Giants -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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