Sunday Baseball Picks of the Day

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, June 25, 2017 12:23 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 25, 2017 12:23 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper backs strong trends on both coasts to try to break his mini-funk on Sunday. Read on as he breaks down two pitching matchups and makes his MLB Picks of the Day for Sunday.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays 

Our MLB handicapper has been fading Chris Tillman of the Orioles for the last few weeks. In this game, he goes up against a Tampa Bay starter with his own problems on the mound.

Jake Odorizzi starts this game for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has developed quite a home run problem this year. Odorizzi has given up a home run or more in every game he’s pitched in except for one, and that was a one-inning appearance in April where he faced 4 batters at Boston. Odorizzi carries a 23.4% line drive,43.3% fly ball, and 17.2% HR/FB rate on the season so far. That line drive rate is particularly high, and if it wasn’t for Odorizzi’s .238 BABIP his ERA would be way higher than 3.78. That is a factor into his 5.34 FIP through 69 innings on the year.

I faded Chris Tillman last week, and even though he gave up 5 earned runs in just 4 innings, the Orioles fought back and won that game 6-5. That performance put Tillman’s FIP up to 6.51 and his BB/9 rate to 4.99. Tillman is allowing a terrible .358 batting average to all batters on the season and has a 2.17 WHIP. I seriously don’t know how he is still starting. Since Odorizzi is not trustworthy with his dinger problem though, I will be taking the Over betting lines of 9.5 runs in this game at Pinnacle as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick Over 9.5 (+106)Best Lines Available at Pinnacle 

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Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners

One of the top prospects in the Houston organization gets a road start on Sunday as the Mariners and Astros play the rubber match of their 3-game series. Read on as our MLB handicapper breaks down this pitching matchup.

Houston’s Francis Martes takes the mound for the Astros on Sunday and will face the Mariners for the first time in his career. Martes has an excellent fastball that ranges between 94-97mph along with a plus curve in the mid-80’s. However, control issues have become an issue for the 21-year old rookie, and this Seattle lineup should have the patience to take advantage of his 4.40 BB/9 rate.

Martes will face Ariel Miranda and his home FIP of 3.71. He’s allowed just a .206 BAA in June but has had an issue giving up home runs to right-handers. Most of those have come on the road though, as the big Cuban lefty pitches well to the benefits of Safeco Field. Miranda has given up 2 or less runs in 11 of his 15 starts, so I will back him against the rookie on the Money Line at 5Dimes when the odds are released as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.   

MLB Free Pick: Mariners MLNo Lines Available at this Point
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