Subpar Pitching Makes Twins vs. Astros A Valuable 'Over' MLB Pick

Charles Stark

Wednesday, May 4, 2016 11:22 AM UTC

Wednesday, May. 4, 2016 11:22 AM UTC

When handicapping sports, one can find value on the most uninteresting games. Let's take a look at the MLB odds and take advantage of today's Twins vs. Astros match.

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
MLB odds makers have set the total for this game at 8, and for one of my MLB picks I will be backing the over like at Pinnacle -118. Neither starting pitcher has been particularly stellar this season and both offenses have enough to put up plenty of runs today.


Minnesota Twins
Phil Hughes takes the mound for the Twins and comes in with a 4.45 ERA and 1.25 whip with Minnesota hitting .243 as a team which ranks 17th in the major leagues. The Twins started out the season on a tough losing streak going 0-9 to start but have gone 8-9 since. Offensively their averages do not depict their record as they rank more towards the middle of the league in several offensive categories. The Twins rank 14th and 15th in the league in hits per game and total bases respectively, and have a .313 on base percentage which ranks 17th in the league.

The main issue is they have not been clutch at the right times for example ranking second in major league baseball in hitting into double plays.  I expect their offense to continue to improve throughout the season. Hughes has been knocked around a bit this and is not the type of pitcher to completely shut a team down.  In his last three seasons on the road he has been decent with an ERA just under 4.00 but batters are hitting .280 against him.  He doesn’t strike a lot of guy out either which should benefit an Astros team that leads the league in that category.


Houston Astros
Mike Fiers takes the mound for the Astros with a 4.97 ERA and 1.28 whip while the Astros are hitting just .227 as a team ranking second to last in the major leagues. So far this team has not lived up to any of last year’s potential and have come out of the gate struggling. Fiers has had two decent starts his last two games allowing just four earned over 12 innings but he has been consistent in giving up runs every game this season. The bullpen for the Astros has been rough with a 4.46 ERA and 0-4 record so far this season as well as batters hitting .248 against them which ranks 11th in the American league.

At the plate they have had a few bright spots averaging 13.31 total bases per game which ranks them 13th in the league and hitting almost two doubles per game which ranks them fifth. They also have a .718 OPS which ranks them 13th, however they simply have not got guys across the plate enough so far this season. With most of their offensive averages looking decent we can anticipate this team to start to pick things up on the offensive end sooner rather than later this year.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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