Strong Betting Trends at Play in Baltimore: Bet Accordingly

Darin Zank

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 11:53 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2015 11:53 AM UTC

This handicapper took a tough loss on Atlanta at a nice underdog price Monday night, but is thinking about going the same way on Tuesday night's Braves-Orioles match, too.

Braves-Orioles Tuesday Betting Odds
Most of Tuesday's MLB betting market opened Baltimore and Ubaldo Jimenez at around -165 over Atlanta and Julio Teheran, but that price was quickly bumped as much as a quarter in the early betting. As of this writing the best line we could find on the Orioles was the -184 offered at BetOnline, while the Braves were getting +180 at 5Dimes.


The Situation
Baltimore took the opener of this series Monday night 2-1, tying the game with a run in the bottom of the ninth, winning it on a Matt Wieters homer in the bottom of the eleventh. The Orioles are now ten games over .500 at home this season at 28-18, while the Braves are 13 games under .500 on the road, at 20-33.

At 49-49 Baltimore trails the division-leading Yankees by seven games in the AL East, but sits just three games behind Minnesota in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

At 46-53 Atlanta trails division-leading Washington by seven games in the NL East, and now trails San Francisco by nine games in the National League wild-card race.


Tuesday's Twirlers
Jimenez (7-6, 3.81) is only seven-for-19 on quality starts this season, and coming off back-to-back bombings. Last Thursday the Yankees got him for seven runs in less than three innings, and just before that he gave up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings against Detroit. So over his last two starts his ERA has jumped one full run, from 2.81 to 3.81. For the season Jimenez has allowed 109 hits through 106 innings, walked 35 and struck out 105.

Baltimore is 9-10 in games Jimenez has started, with the UNDERS going 9-8.

This will be the first time Jimenez has started against Atlanta since 2013, when as an Indian he held the Braves to three runs through seven innings of a 3-1 Tribe loss.

Teheran (6-5, 4.49) is nine-for-20 on quality starts, and three for his last four. Last Wednesday he held the Dodgers to three runs through seven innings, with 11 whiffs, and over his last four starts he's held foes to eight ER through 25 2/3 innings. On the season Teheran has allowed 120 hits, including 16 home runs, through 120 innings, walked 45 and struck out 102.

Atlanta is 11-9 in Teheran's starts, with the totals skewing toward the OVERS by a 14-6 margin.

This will be Teheran's first-ever start against Baltimore, which could give him an edge on Orioles hitters, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.


Tuesday's Batting Splits
Atlanta ranks 12th in the Majors against right-handed pitching with a .257 team batting average, and 14th with a .318 team on-base percentage.

Baltimore ranks 18th against righties with a .252 batting average and 20th with a .309 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The UNDERS are now 27-20 in games played at Camden Yards this season, which are averaging 8.8 runs per.


Braves-O's Tuesday Free Picks
We took a tough loss on yesterday's game, but still believe we were on the right side of the value on yesterday's line, considering we took a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth with a +170 underdog. Too bad Atlanta went 0-for-nine with RISP. As for tonight's game we're thinking along the same lines; the value resides with the Braves. Also, Atlanta is skewing hard toward the UNDERS as of late, and we'll play that trend to continue.

MLB Picks: Braves +180 at 5Dimes and UNDER 7.5 runs (-105) at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,43,227,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here