Streaking Mets to Take Care of Padres Behind Matz

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, July 26, 2017 12:36 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 26, 2017 12:36 PM UTC

Steven Matz duels with Jhoulys Chacin on Wednesday night (10:10 ET) at Petco Park as the streaking Mets aim for three wins in a row vs. the Padres.

New York Mets (47-51)

The Mets are playing arguably their best baseball of the season, winning six of seven games in the last week. Pitchers are holding opponents to 3.71 runs on 9.57 hits per game, while the lineup is crossing the plate 5.14 times per tilt. Maintaining momentum will be difficult. Not only is tonight the third of a 10-game West Coast road swing, but motivation may be missing sitting 9 games back in the NL Wild Card race.

Steven Matz will take the mound for manager Terry Collins. The southpaw did not make an appearance until June 10 due to an elbow injury. Transitioning back has been tough. Matz is keeping the ball in the zone and is paying the consequences. He’s allowed 15 earned runs on 25 hits over his last 10.1 frames. Overall, the left-hander is 2-3 with a 4.67 ERA in 2017.

Matz has one career start vs. the Padres, holding them scoreless with 8 Ks in 7.1 innings in a 5-1 win at Citi Field last August.

The Mets are 12-8 SU all-time in Matz’s road starts, returning 18 percent profit to bettors at -108 odds. Most of those wins came early in the southpaw’s career. Since June 2016, the team is 4-7 SU, losing 22 percent of one’s investment.

 San Diego Padres (43-57)

The Padres and Royals made a six-player trade on Monday with San Diego shipping off three pitchers (Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer, Ryan Buchter) in return for two arms (Travis Wood, Matt Strahm), an infielder (Esteury Ruiz) and cash considerations. Although the payoff for San Diego in the deal is Ruiz’s upside, new faces in the staff are needed. In the last 10 days, Padres pitchers have yielded 65 runs (7.22 per game). The ‘over’ is 7-1-1 in this span with an average game score of 12.9 runs.

Jhoulys Chacin will make a slightly delayed start after getting the bump on Monday due to a sore back. The sinkerballer is coming into form, having won three of his last four appearances. Chacin’s ERA has dropped from 5.77 in early May to 3.26 currently. The right-hander has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts.

The current Mets roster has pounded Chacin in the past. Altogether, the team is batting .371 (23-for-62) against him with a whopping 1.122 OPS. Lucas Duda has done the most damage, driving in 6 on three hits, two of which are homers. Overall, eight of New York’s 23 hits have been for extra bases.

Chacin is the Padres' most lucrative pitcher this season. The team is 11-9 SU in his starts with bettors profiting 25 percent at +137 average odds.


Final Analysis

Matz will out put in a good effort against one of the weakest lineups in the bigs, and the Mets bats will slug their way to a win. New York has just 22 road victories this season, but eight have come in nine contests against teams with a winning percentage less than 44.4 percent. Mets hitters have scored 5 runs or more in each for a 7.56 average. The Padres own a .430 rate.

MLB Free Pick: Mets Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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