Streaking Diamondbacks to Upset Astros as Road Underdogs

Charles Stark

Thursday, July 30, 2015 11:33 PM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 30, 2015 11:33 PM GMT

I'm going to back the Diamondbacks today when they visit the Astros. Right now Arizona is on a five-game winning streak and they're hitting the ball all over the field, this a good spot to back them.

 

Odds
Houston has to be favored in this spot at home and oddsmakers came out with them as a -131 favorite. The line has dropped a bit since then. The Diamondbacks are a solid underdog in this spot from +105 to +115 MLB odds, and you can get them at that +115 at Pinnacle. With a pretty even pitching matchup this is good value on a hot team in Arizona against a Houston team that just came off a tough series with the Los Angeles Angels.

 

Pitching Matchup
Rubby De La Rosa will get the start for the Diamondbacks and he is one of my favorite hot and cold pitchers in the major leagues. He comes in with a 4.52 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and he can be outstanding at times, and at times he can struggle. Four starts ago he had two rough outings in a row, allowing 10 runs in just eight innings against the Rockies and then at the Mets. But in his last two starts he's been extremely tough, allowing one earned run in 15 innings off of only nine hits, and that one run was just a solo home run. Throughout his last 10 starts this hot and cold scenario has persisted with him, at times giving up as many as nine earned runs in five innings against the Dodgers, and then coming back and allowing zero earned runs in eight innings against the Giants.

Scott Feldman takes the hill for the Astros with a 4.54 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and he has pitched pretty decent recently as well. He can be hot and cold like De La Rosa and in his last three starts he allowed one run in six innings at Baltimore, then came back allowing four earned runs and two home runs in just five innings versus Texas, then he finally had a solid outing in Kansas City, allowing only one earned run over seven innings. He has struggled at home this season with a 5.63 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, and I look for the Diamondbacks to knock him around quite a bit today.

 

At the Plate
Both the Diamondbacks and the Astros are solid offensive teams. Houston ranks fourth in the major leagues in runs scored per game with the Diamondbacks right behind them ranked fifth. In OPS we see about the same thing with the Astros ranked sixth and the Diamondbacks ranked ninth, but in batting average we see quite the disparity with Arizona ranked sixth in the major leagues batting .262 and the Astros ranked 25th batting .245. There is not a lot of separation overall though when comparing both these teams at the plate.

Value is what this game is about for me, and this a good spot to grab a hot team on the plus money line. I can see why a lot of people would want to grab Houston with how well they have played this year and being at home. But at worst this game is a coin flip and could go either way, so any kind of plus money on the Diamondbacks is great value in my opinion. Back Arizona to pull the minor upset today in Houston.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +124 at 5Dimes

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