Steep Odds Won't Cloud Our Judgment: Pick Nats -155 Over Giants

David Lawrence

Sunday, July 5, 2015 3:15 PM GMT

The Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants finish up their series today as they’ll be the MLB betting matchup for Sunday Night Baseball. Let’s take a closer look at this contest.

Momentum
The Nats have won the first two games of this series after having dropped three of four entering it. They won a close 2-1 matchup in the Gio Gonzalez-Jake Peavy showdown on Friday and then easily won Saturday’s Stephen Strasburg-Madison Bumgarner matchup 9-3. Overall, they’ve now won 11 of their last 14 games and are playing some of their best baseball of the season. They’ve been cooking at home too where they’ve won eight straight games. On the season, they are 24-14 at home compared to 21-22 on the road.

Speaking of home away splits, the Giants don’t really play all too different based on the venue. They are now an equal 21-20 both at home and on the road. However, the road has not been kind to them recently as they’ve now dropped five straight away games. As a whole, they’ve faded over the last month as they are 8-14 over their last 22 games. Bet accordingly, as momentum is clearly with the Nationals in this spot.

Read SBR's Betting Picks Digest for Giants vs. Nationals

Sunday's Starting Pitcher Matchups
Jordan Zimmermann has been somewhat up and down this season, posting a 4.88 ERA in April, but settling down in May (1.91) and June (3.00). He has been particularly sharp of late as he hasn’t allowed a run in his last two outings, which have spanned 15.2 innings pitched. Although his strikeout rate has dropped from last season, we still get fairly steady outings from Zimmermann for the most part. In 16 starts this season, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of them. He has also lasted until the six-inning mark in 13 starts too. He has been much more reliable at home where he has a 2.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .251 opponent batting average compared to on the road where he has a 4.35 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP and .314 opponent batting average.

As for Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants have dropped four of his last six starts. That’s because he’s allowed four earned runs or more in four of those six starts. He’s been very hit or miss this season. In his 16 starts, he’s allowed four runs or more in seven of those outings. The Giants have lost every single time. However, he’s allowed two earned runs or less in every other start and the Giants are 8-1 in those games. His good starts tend to come at home where he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP compared to on the road where his ERA jumps to 5.40 and his WHIP goes to 1.48.

 

What’s The Pick?
When we review this matchups' betting odds, we consider -155 a bit steep but everything that we’re looking at points to a Nationals win. They’ve been playing well and the Giants have been slumping. Zimmermann is a quality pitcher and hope while Vogelsong is a little weak on the road. Add it all up and I’ll put a small play on the Nats at -155 at The Greek

MLB Pick: Nationals -155