Stats & Trends Make ‘Over’ the Pick When D-Backs Meet Dodgers Monday Night

David Lawrence

Monday, June 29, 2015 12:04 PM GMT

Monday, Jun. 29, 2015 12:04 PM GMT

The Diamondbacks have not fared well this year against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They'll try to change that on Monday night when this midweek series begins in Phoenix. 

Momentum
Neither team has been lighting it up the past week, so this is basically a wash. The Dodgers split four games on the road in Chicago against the Cubs, and then won two out of three against the Marlins in Miami, on a weekend when the Fish were playing without Giancarlo Stanton in the final two games of that series. The Dodgers merely split those two games. Los Angeles has been getting tremendous pitching out of Zack Greinke, who currently has a 1.58 ERA for the season and has been throwing one shutout after another. He's working on a 20 2/3-inning scoreless streak, but he's only won one game (in terms of a decision) in the last three starts, which accompanied that streak. The Dodgers lost, 1-0, in 10 innings in Greinke's previous start, and they won 2-0 in his most recent start this past Sunday. The Dodgers aren't playing bad baseball overall; their pitching remains outstanding. However, if they could hit a little bit, they'd be so much better than they currently are.

The Diamondbacks are treading water, losing two out of every three on the road and winning two out of three at home -- at least, that's how their last three series have gone. The problem for Arizona is that a 4-5 record in nine games is a lot worse when it comes in six games against San Diego and three against Colorado. If Arizona can't make up ground against the worse teams in the National League West, how can it expect to beat the Dodgers a majority of the time?

Must Read: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks free MLB pick

Pitching Matchup
With Mike Bolsinger on the mound, the Dodgers have a decent pitcher, but one who is creating more concerns, not fewer. Bolsinger's ERA is still under three runs for the season, and his whip is a solid 1.24 for the year, but only one of his last five starts has been particularly good. Bolsinger is on a pitch count -- the Dodgers have not allowed him to throw 100 pitches in any of his last 10 starts. They want to keep his arm fresh, since starting games is still relatively new for him. He has only 19 career starts on his resume. Bolsinger gave up only two runs in his most recent start on June 24, but he lasted just 4 2/3 innings and did not operate efficiently. He's a bit of a mystery at this point.

Arizona gives the ball to Allen Webster, who has a 6.46 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Webster has made only three starts this season, all of them in June over the past few weeks. He hasn't finished six complete innings in any start. He's allowed three homers in 15 1/3 innings of work. He's walked a total of 10 hitters in those three starts and 15 1/3 innings, which is probably the worst and most alarming statistic of all. Webster has to be able to challenge hitters and not nibble at the strike zone.

 

What’s The Pick?
The Diamondbacks are facing a vulnerable pitcher in Bolsinger, but unfortunately for them, Webster is exponentially more vulnerable than Bolsinger is. The Dodgers' bats should get healthy against Webster unless the Arizona starter transforms the way he pitches. Add it all up and it looks like an over play for our MLB picks. The average combined score in Bolsinger’s last five starts is 10.4 runs, so that should get us over.

MLB Pick: Over at Bovada

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