Stats Breakdown Favors Twins +107 at Home Over Pirates

Charles Stark

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 11:16 AM GMT

With the Pittsburgh Pirates making a strong push towards the playoffs it make sense for them to be favored, albeit slightly today in Minnesota. Still, when breaking down the statistics there is good value with the Twins.

Odds
MLB odds makers came out with Pittsburgh at a -116 favorite and I think this is just a little bit too high for them on the road. My best assessment is that this line is going to go down and right now the best odds I have seen on Minnesota is at Pinnacle sports book at +107. For me anywhere from a pick to a little bit of plus money is good value on a Twins team that is having a solid season so far and, like the Pirates, is also making a push for the playoffs.

Today's Pitching Preview Includes This Matchup!

On the Mound
For Pittsburgh Charlie Morton gets the start with a 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He is not a big strikeout guy with only 36 K's in just over 64 innings pitched, and on the road he has been less than stellar. This will be his third road start in a row, and away from Pittsburgh he has a 7.82 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the season. Those are some big numbers to take in to Minnesota where the Twins play their best baseball and are very tough to beat. For the Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey will get the start and comes in with a 3.94 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. For how much Morton has struggled on the road Pelfrey has been very tough at home with a 2.22 ERA and 1.14 of you WHIP. He has struggled a bit lately in his last few starts, but in those starts he faced some of the tougher hitting teams in the major leagues in the Royals, Tigers, and Angels. Against the Pirates he should have more success today being at home.

 

At the Plate
Both the Pirates and the Twins are decent on the offense end and rank from the middle of the league to the upper part in most major offense categories. The Twins rank 13th in runs scored per game with Pittsburgh ranking 17th, and at OPS Minnesota ranks 19th with Pittsburgh 21st. In batting average Pittsburgh ranks higher at eighth compared to Minnesota at 18th. The biggest disparity on the offense side is how well Minnesota hits at home, in the categories just mentioned Minnesota goes from a middle tiered ranked offense to one of the top offenses in the major leagues at home.

I'm still a little surprised Pittsburgh is favored in the spot but with Pittsburgh's overall record it makes a little bit of sense. Also, this pitching matchup is probably a lot more even than what we see on paper with the home and away disparities. Still, this is about value and for me the value is on the Twins at home where I think they will continue their success today, back Minnesota.

MLB Picks: Twins +107 at Pinnacle