Start Smyly-ing with MLB Picks 'Under': Twins vs. Rays

Charles Stark

Thursday, August 27, 2015 11:51 AM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 27, 2015 11:51 AM GMT

With two solid lefties on the mound in Tampa Bay, I'm placing my MLB picks under the total. Tommy Milone & Drew Smyly come in with a combined seven years of major league experience.

Twins vs. Rays MLB Odds
MLB odds makers came out with the total for this game at 7.5 at regular odds. The line has moved a little bit as far as the juice goes and right now there is some good value on taking under the total here. The best line right now for backing under the total of 7.5 is at Bookmaker sports book at +100, for me that is good value in what I consider is an underrated pitching matchup.

Check out Charles' MLB Pick on Padres vs. Nationals, too

Minnesota Twins
Tommy Milone gets the start for the Twins with a 3.69 ERA, 1.25 whip, 66 strikeouts, and a 6-3 record. I've had a couple chances to watch him throw live and he is really good at keeping guys off-balance. He is not overpowering but he has good location on most of his pitches. In his last several starts for the Twins he's only had one bad outing where he allowed five runs in two innings against the A's in which he allowed three home runs, but those games happen sometimes. Besides that bad outing and kind of a tough one against the Mariners where he allowed four earned runs in six innings, he has been steady and a good option for Minnesota.

Minnesota ranks 10th in runs scored per game at 4.& 35, 20th in OPS at .703, and 22nd in batting average hitting .249 as a team. They hit left-handers better than right-handers and they had a good day at the plate yesterday, but on the road they have the worst batting average in the league at .228. I don't expect them to have as much offensive production today as the past two games versus Tampa Bay.


Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Smyly gets the call for Tampa Bay and comes in with a 3.42 ERA, 1.06 whip, 27 strikeouts, and a 1-2 record on the season. After coming back from the DL he his 1-1 with a subpar outing in Texas, a tough place to pitch allowing five earned runs in four innings off of seven hits, and one solid outing. In his last start was that nice performance in Oakland where he allowed zero earned runs in five innings off of just six hits. With Minnesota overachieving a bit these last couple games I expect him to have a quality start and get the Twins back to their normal average on the road.

Tampa Bay ranks 28th in runs scored per game at 3.74, 21st in OPS at .702, and 24th in batting average hitting .247 as a team. They average just about the same across the board whether they are at home or away. Like the Twins they hit left-handers a little bit better than right-handers but they don't have the type of team that can put up a lot of runs in a hurry and their statistics show it. I don't expect them to get shut out today but I also don't expect any more production than what they had yesterday scoring just three runs.


Baseball Betting Verdict
When planning my MLB picks today, I find this line is little bit surprising when you matchup all the statistics and the fact that these two teams have gone over the total the last two games. At 7.5 it looks like it might be an easy call on the over but don't buy into that. Both these pitchers are solid major leaguers and will have two good performances today, back the under.

Free MLB Picks: Under 7.5 +105 at 5Dimes

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