Start Building Your Weekend Bankroll with 2 Friday Winners

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Mark Lathrop

Friday, April 14, 2017 1:03 PM GMT

Friday, Apr. 14, 2017 1:03 PM GMT

Friday, we have some marquee starting pitching matchups, but our MLB handicapper is looking to fade a few bullpens that have let down their teams so far. Read on as he gives two games that should cross 'over' the listed total late in games.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/m3jBeDBTwkk", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Texas Rangers Vs. Seattle Mariners

After unveiling a grand statue of Ken Griffey Jr. on their day off, maybe the Mariners will be inspired to hit a little bit better against the Texas Rangers as they start a weekend series in Seattle.

In the Mariners’ last two games, they have done well in jumping out to early leads against opponents, just to blow it as the bullpen coughed up lead and the offense couldn’t play add-on. The Seattle bullpen is carrying a 7.71 ERA through the first 10 games of the season, although most of that has been terrible luck. Seattle’s relievers are giving up a batted-balls in play average of .406 – dead last in the league. So, even if Felix Hernandez can have an average outing and only give up a couple of runs, the bullpen will be in play in this game.

That will also be the case with Texas, and its bullpen is putting up an ERA of 6.84 so far. This is less dependent on luck with their overall reliever BABIP sitting at .333. The Rangers' bullpen is just bad right now, and both bullpens have a tendency to give up dingers.

Speaking of luck, Rangers starter Martin Perez has put up a 2.38 ERA even though his fielding independent pitching ERA is 4.22. His ERA will regress toward the mid-4s soon, and I am counting on that happening soon while taking over in this game.

MLB Free Pick: 'Over' 8Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Arizona Diamondbacks Vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Ah, here we are again. With a total starting at 6, our MLB handicapper is like a moth to a flame; circling and circling until finally giving in to flying Over the fire.

One of my favorite writers, Jeff Sullivan, wrote recently that we should all be watching Arizona's Zack Greinke closely as he is showing signs of precipitous decline. His fastball velocity dropped last year and continued to drop over the spring. After signing a massive contract with the Diamondbacks after a 1.66 ERA in the 2015 season with the Dodgers, Greinke put up a 4.37 ERA in 2016 with the Snakes. It didn’t matter if he was pitching at home or away, Greinke was mediocre all the way around.

Greinke faces Clayton Kershaw on Friday night, and Kershaw has not shown any signs of decline from his usual dominance. The only caveat to that is that Kershaw starts slow, if you could call a career 3.08 ERA in April “slow.” He gets stronger as the year goes on though, so if there was any time to pick an 'over' with Kershaw in the mound it is in April.

My guess is that we see the Arizona bullpen in this game with its 4.73 ERA. The relievers actually been decent results-wise, not having blown a save in their hot 7-3 SU start. But we won’t need much to cross the threshold of 6 here late in the game. I am taking 'over' here.

MLB Free Pick: 'Over' 6 Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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