Stanton Leads League In Home Runs But We Take Our Chances Further Down The Odds Board

Kevin Stott

Monday, March 28, 2016 8:41 PM GMT

Let’s take a look at the updated numbers from the Home Run Future Book marketplace with the highest available odds as well as some analysis and a couple of regular and longshot MLB picks.

Days of Thick Blowing Pollen You Can Chew On, Easter Eggs and Thoughts of The Long Ball
The Pollen is thick in the air and there are Easter candy rappers fluttering in the rude breezes here in Las Vegas this morning and Jim Rice, Luis Tiant and David Ortiz are on my microscopic TV doing a Grapefruit League Swan Song lap in the Bullpen Cart around JetBlue Park in Fort Myers, Florida to honor the fans in his (Ortiz’s) last season with the Boston Red Sox.

So, Major League Baseball must be just around the corner it seems. And with MLB comes Home Runs, probably the coolest thing to happen in the sport outside of the occasional inside-the-park Home Run, triple play, steal of Home Plate or stealing of a Home Run by a jumping OF—not counting of course when a fan catches a Foul Ball with his left hand while holding little Junior in his right. Last season the Baltimore Orioles’ Chris Davis (57) was the overall MLB leader while the Washington Nationals Bryce Harper (42) was the leader in the National League.

Let’s analyze some of the best candidates later, but here is an extensive list of the best current MLB Home Run Futures Book odds from the Oddschecker screen for listed players in MLB. And noteworthy: Strangely enough, only 6-0, 210-pound Seattle Mariners 3B Kyle Seager (100/1 to win Home Run title, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4, 215-pound SS Corey Seager (100/1 to win Home Run title, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—who had 4 Home Runs in 116 Plate Appearances for Los Doyers late last season—were the only two MLB players listed on the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Futures Book sheet out in early January but not in the Oddschecker screen’s market of players, while there is no “Field” (15/1, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) bet listed for all of the European sportsbooks offering up action in this marketplace.

So, say that some unlisted MLB player like the Milwaukee Brewers Chris Carter (24 Home Runs in 2015) should sneak up and win the Home Run title, then nobody but the European and Online Sportsbooks (without Field bets listed as an option) would win in that scenario. So even if a seemingly minor thing, the European operators possibly unfamiliar with American (Major League) Baseball who don’t offer a “Field” option may want to start offering up that “Field” option as they (fairly) do over at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Just in case you know, as no players want to feel the House has no chance of losing in any given Sports Betting endeavor. Markets should always be evolving and (somewhat) fair.

 

Highest Regular Season Home Run Leader Current Odds (March 28, 2016)
Giancarlo Stanton 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Chris Davis 12/1 (Betway)  >Opened 25/1 Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Bryce Harper 13/1 odds (Marathon)
Mike Trout 14/1 (888sport, Betway, Unibet 32Red)
Josh Donaldson 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
Edwin Encarnacion 22/1 (888sport)
José Bautista 25/1 (888sport, Unibet, 32Red)
Kris Bryant 25/1 (Ladbrokes)
Nelson Cruz 25/1 (888sport, Ladbrokes, Unibet 32Red)
Nolan Arenado 25/1 (Ladbrokes)
Paul Goldschmidt 28/1 (888sport, Ladbrokes, Unibet 32Red)
Anthony Rizzo 33/1 (totesport, Betfred, William Hill)
JD Martinez 33/1 (888sport, Unibet 32Red)
José Abreu 25/1 (888sport, Betway, Unibet, 32Red, Marathon)
Miguel Sanó 35/1 (Marathon)
Justin Upton 40/1 (Everywhere)
Miguel Cabrera 40/1 (888sport, Unibet, 32Red)
Todd Frazier 40/1 (888sport, Unibet, 32Red)
Carlos Correa 45/1 (Marathon)
Albert Pujols 50/1 (888sport, Ladbrokes, Betway, Unibet, 32Red)
George Springer 50/1 (Almost everywhere)
Mark Trumbo 50/1 (888sport, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betway, Unibet, 32Red)
Khris Davis 66/1 (totesport, Betfred, William Hill, Betfair, Unibet)
Troy Tulowitzki 66/1 (totesport, Betfred, 888sport, William Hill. Betfair)
Manny Machado 80/1 (totesport, Betfred, 888sport, William Hill. Betfair)
Pedro Álvarez 80/1 (Almost everywhere)
Kyle Schwarber 90/1 (Marathon)
Adam Jones 100/1 (William Hill)
David Ortiz 100/1 (888sport, William Hill, Unibet, 32Red)
Evan Gattis 100/1 (William Hill)
Freddie Freeman 100/1 (Everywhere)
Hanley Ramírez 100/1 (Almost everywhere) >Opened 60/1 at Westgate LV SuperBook
Jay Bruce 100/1 (Almost everywhere)
Joey Votto 100/1 (888sport) >Opened 60/1 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Mark Teixeira 100/1 (totesport, Betfred, Ladbrokes, William Hill)\
Prince Fielder 100/1 (888sport, Ladbrokes, Unibet, 32Red, Marathon)
Ryan Braun 100/1 (Everywhere)
Yoenis Céspedes 100/1 (William Hill)
Yasiel Puig 110/1 (Marathon)
Adrian Gonzalez 150/1 (Ladbrokes)
Alex Rodriguez 150/1 (William Hill)
Lucas Duda 150/1 (William Hill)
Joc Pederson 150/1 (Ladbrokes)
Carlos González 150/1 (888sport, Unibet, 32Red)
Maikel Franco 150/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Matt Adams 150/1 (Almost everywhere)
Michael Conforto 150/1 (Ladbrokes)
Andrew McCutchen 200/1 (William Hill)
Brian Dozier 200/1 (William Hill)
Carlos Santana 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Corey Dickerson 200/1 (William Hill)
Curtis Granderson 200/1 (William Hill)
Evan Longoria 200/1 (William Hill)
Kendrys Morales 200/1 (William Hill)
Kole Calhoun 200/1 (William Hill)
Matt Kemp 200/1 (William Hill)
Randal Grichuk 200/1 (William Hill)

 

Major League Baseball Home Run Leaders Over the Last 20 Seasons
2015—Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles 47 (AL, Right-handed hitter)
2014—Nelson Cruz, Baltimore Orioles 40 (AL, Right-handed)
2013—Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles 53 (AL, Right-handed hitter)
2012—Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers 44 (AL, Right-handed)
2011—José Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays 43 (AL, Right-handed)
2010—José Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays 54 (AL, Right-handed)
2009—Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals 47 (NL, Right-handed)
2008—Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies 48 (NL, Left-handed)
2007—Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees 54 (AL, Right-handed)
2006—Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies 58 (NL, Left-handed)
2005—Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves 51 (NL, Right-handed)
2004—Adrián Beltré, Los Angeles Dodgers 48 (NL, Right-handed)
2003—(Tie) Jim Thome, Phillies, Alex Rodriguez, Rangers 47 (NL/AL, L/R)
2002—Alex Rodriguez, Texas Rangers 57 (AL, Right-handed)
2001—Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants 73 (NL, Left-handed)
2000—Sammy Sosa, Chicago Cubs 50 (NL, Right-handed)
1999—Mark McGwire, St. Louis Cardinals 65 (NL, Right-handed)
1998—Mark McGwire, St. Louis Cardinals 70 (NL, Right-handed)
1997—Ken Griffey, Jr., Seattle Mariners 56 (AL, Left-handed)
1996—Mark McGwire, Oakland Athletics 52 (AL, Right-handed)

 

Home Run Future Book Marketplace Analysis, Best Market Betting Approaches and Some Logical Picks
The thing about this market, is that one of these years a young player with 100/1 MLB odds is going to come along and have a breakout season and bang 55 Homers or something and win a couple of lucky people some money as it looks like 5,000/1 odds longshot first-place Leicester City may be doing over in the English Premier League this season. Ooh-rah. The time is ripe for someone new to bust out, but probably not this year with either Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper or one of the Toronto Blue Jays Mod Squad ending up with the most Home Runs in Major League Baseball. The Health, Durability, Number of Plate appearances and the Player’s ability to not only hit Home Runs, but to actually go for Home Runs in the majority of At Bats.

Some guys that can hit Homers choose to shorten their swings in appropriate situations and to not try to go deep, whereas others like the Chicago Cubs Kris Bryant and Stanton look like they’re always trying to hit a dinger and both of these right-handed hitters have those long, loopings swings where it appears they’re going for glory on every swing. And sometimes it even seems Stanton is either 1—Trying to hit the Cowhide off of the actual baseball; 2—Put a serious hole or permanent dent in a Left Field scoreboard, or, 3—Launch an actual baseball out of our Earthly atmosphere and into orbit so it lands exactly in that Red Spot on Jupiter so he wins the game of Life and removes all Evil from the Milky Way Galaxy.

Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire would almost always appear to trying to lift the ball out of the park and Barry Bonds got into a Home Run groove once he “bulked up “ and made that a priority. Look at some of Bonds’s early baseball cards and you will find a somewhat slim, 6-foot-1-inch tall, 185-pound guy. Anyway, the analytical point here is to go for guys that go for Home Runs and who will probably play the vast majority of MLB’s 162-game schedule (and possibly be on something).

Although a Left-handed hitter and in the National League—the American League has had the overall MLB Home Run leader in 7 of L10 seasons and a Right-handed hitter has W8 of the L10—the 23-year-old Las Vegas native Harper played in 153 of 162 MLB games last season (94.4%), so Durability and Youth and the ability to go for the Home Run are all there, although the strong and speedy Harper (6-3, 216) won’t go for Home Runs when the situation doesn’t dictate it—like fellow superstar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim’s OF Mike Trout (14/1, Betway)—possibly hurting his chances in this market.

But the growth Harper (.330, 42 HR, 99 RBI) showed from the previous year (in terms of HR-hitting ability) was huge and no doubt he has a personal goal of 50 this year and at the current 13/1 odds (Marathon), Harper is well worth a toss and his name should be among the MLB Home Run leaders all season long if he stays healthy. Harper hit 23 of his 42 Home Runs at Home last year and analyzing the Home ballpark where your MLB pick or picks play (81 games) is also very important as is always giving the AL the slight edge over the NL due to the Designated Hitter and the league’s proclivity to be more Offensive and have more players likely to actually hit and go for Home Runs. Last year, 8 of the Top 11—there was a two-way tie for 10th—MLB Home Run hitters were from the AL with only the Nats’ Harper (.649 Slugging Percentage), Colorado Rockies 22-year-old 3B Nolan Arenado and teammate Carlos González coming from the NL.

And note how the Altitude and Ballpark (Coors) in Denver help Home Run hitters, although the team has trouble keeping stars and having players who are able to hit Home Runs does not necessarily translate to winning Baseball games and some players can go for Homers because their teams are out of the Pennant Race. It’s an odd market with fair prices where one of the favorites usually wins. But as mentioned, one season someone with longshot odds is going to burst onto the scene and only those who did their MLB homework in January, February and March will likely be the ones cashing that (Regular Season) Home Run Title Futures Book ticket.

In the past 22 seasons, 17 winners in this market have been Right-handed hitters (73.9%) and it seems like one three Blue Jays (16/1 to win World Series, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) amigos could win it this campaign. José Bautista (40 HRs in 2015), Josh Donaldson (41) and Edwin Encarnacion (39) are all Right-handed hitters who are licensed to hit the Long Ball, and at (a high) of 22/1 (Ladbrokes), powerful young 3B Donaldson is also worth a shot in this niche marketplace before the MLB season begins on Sunday afternoon with the Pirates hosting the Cardinals (ESPN WatchESPN, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT).

MLB HOME RUN LEADER FUTURES BOOK PICKS: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals 13/1 (Marathon), Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays 22/1 (Ladbrokes)

MLB HOME RUN LEADER FUTURES BOOK LONGSHOT PICKS: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees 150/1 (William Hill), Carlos González, Colorado Rockies 150/1 (888sport)