Staggering Stats Support MLB Picks on Royals -1.5 Over Tigers

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, August 10, 2015 1:53 PM GMT

If you're searching for Monday's best MLB pick, look no further, as this handicapper's 'Top MLB winner' is based on situations that are 79% and 73% winners. 

Detroit Tigers (Boyd) at KC Royals (Cueto) (-1 ½ /+105) 8:10 ET
Detroit Tigers visit the KC Royals for the first of this early week series between a pair of teams who last season contended for AL supremacy. The Royals won that battle, representing the AL in the World Series.  This season, it is nolo contendre between these AL Central division rivals. As we analyze Monday's betting odds for the Tigers-Royals on August 10th, the 66-44 Royals hold a 12 ½ game lead over the 54-57 Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers are toast!  After trading Scherzer to Washington and Verlander coming off the DL to record just a single win, along with the trading of this year’s ace, David Price, Detroit has clearly tossed the towel!  A 40-34 start has evaporated into a 14-23 slide.  Although tonight’s starter, Boyd, pitched well in his most recent outing, for the season he is 1-2 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.  This team is a purely play agains team.

The KC version of small ball, great defense, solid starting pitching and among the best bullpen in MLB, leaves them as the only AL team playing .600 baseball at this point in the season.  The Royals have been outstanding on their home field with a 37-18 record.  They are on a 14-3 run on this field, following their weekend, home sweep of CWS.  In their most recent 16 home games, the Royals are averaging 5.4 RPG.

With the acquisition, from Cincinnati, of Johnny Cueto, the Royals have the true ace they have needed to make them the odds-on favorite to win the World Series.  Toiling for Cincinnati and in a pair of starts for the Royals, Cueto has a 2.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP.  Tonight, he makes his home debut for his home team with the knowledge that, in a pair of appearances from this mound, Cueto has spun a 2.08 ERA.  Every reason to believe his success will be just as great at home as it was in Cincinnati, where in 8 home starts, Cueto had a 0.88 WHIP.  Only over confidence can slow down the Royals at this point.  But with the momentum of the 3-game sweep and Cueto pitching at home, I do not see this as being a downer against down-trodden Detroit.  

Run line players will note that despite the Royals’ narrow victories vs. CWS this weekend, 48 of their 66 victories (73%) have been by 2 or more runs.   Detroit is staggering with 15 of their 19 losses since July 1st being by 2 or more runs.

MLB Picks: Take  KC Royals (Cueto) -1.5 +110 at Pinnacle