St. Louis Run Line The MLB Pick When Betting Padres vs. Cardinals

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, July 18, 2016 5:28 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 18, 2016 5:28 PM UTC

A pitching mismatch on Padres vs Cardinals game, make an easy bet on St. Louis. Our expert handicapper analysis how this game has a great value on the run line, and provides his MLB Pick.

San Diego Padres (Friedrich) vs St. Louis Cardinals (Leake) 
The Cards remain atop our list of “BUY” teams, while the Padres fly east after upsetting division rival, San Francisco (the team with the best record in MLB) in all 3 games of their weekend set. After the 3 losses by the Giants, it means that no team in MLB is playing better than .613 ball. I like the situation favoring the home standing Cards in this one, along with the pitching matchup.


Just prior to the break, the Padres traded their best pitcher, Drew Pomeranz, to Boston. Using retread starter, Edwin Jackson, who had a 7.32 ERA at El Paso, the Padres completed the 3-game sweep by beating San Fran and all-star starter, Cueto (who was 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA) by a score of 5-3.  At 41-51, San Diego realizes again this year, they are going nowhere! Following that weekend sweep of San Fran, it will be no surprise if the Padres, who are 18-26 on the road, lay a giant egg in this 4-game set at St. Louis. Tonight’s starter, Friedrich, will certainly not help their cause. He enters tonight’s game on a recent run of 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA.  


St. Louis counters with tonight’s starting pitcher, Leake. He comes off a great start in which he worked 7 IP with a 10/0 K/BB in a 5-1 win over Milwaukee. The Cards were our biggest BUY sign team coming out of the break. If you reviewed my Play On “Buy” teams and Play Against “Sell” Teams, you will note that you would have gone 14-10 this past weekend. Look for them to continue to grind out a profit.  One of the teams who failed in that role was these Cardinals, who finished a weekend set against Miami with a 6-3 loss yesterday. With Top 7 numbers in both batting and pitching, it makes little sense that the Cards continue to struggle at 47-44. Yet, they remain only 8 games behind the Cubs and are clearly in the Wild Card hunt.  Most unusual is the St. Louis record at home which is 20-28. Remember that this is a perennial 50-win home team, who led the MLB in home victories last year with 55. With a series record at this site of 24-10 vs. the Padres, I expect good things from St. Louis in their 4-game early week set.


We play the run line, turning this into an underdog price, with the realization that 40 of 47 St. Louis’ victories (over 85%) have come by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.  


Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -1½ +125
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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