St Louis Cardinals Clear MLB Pick Against Cincinnati Reds

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 7, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 7, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

The St Louis Cardinals travel to Cincinnati for the first of a three game early week set. Join us in this baseball betting preview and profit from the Free MLB Pick.

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The teams met for just one series previous to this, with the Cards taking 2/3 in St Louis in April. St. Louis has now won 19 of the last 24 games in this series. Though the Reds enter winners 4/5, that is just a mirage; Cincinnati has the 22nd ranked batting OPS (.714) and 30th ranked bullpen OPS (882). The 21-36 record is not faux; it is fo’ real!

The Cards enter with the mini momentum of two home wins over San Francisco, yet they still trail the Cubs by a full 10 games in the division race, and are a half game behind the Pirates for 2nd place. This being the case, there can be no let down for a St Louis team who is 30-27, and is accustomed to a much loftier record at this point of the season. With pitching numbers in our favor, along with the #2 batting OPS at .793 and #10 bullpen OPS at .684, this is a total mismatch, especially with Leake vs Lamb on the mound. As I will suggest to you, you should have confidence making this play on the run line, knowing it is out of a perfect 100% run line situation. 

Much like his team, Lamb is faux. He may throw in an occasional good start, as he did at Colorado in his last outing, but for the season, he is 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA. His career numbers speak volumes. His lifetime stats of MLB include a 1.58 WHIP and a .300 BAA. The big bats of St Louis should pound him early, leaving the Reds’ bottom-ranked bullpen to get further blasted. 

Last year, Mike Leake hurled for Cincinnati, as he had for the previous 6 seasons until his trade to San Francisco mid-way through the year. Now he has at last settled in at St Louis, where he is starting to make his mark in the rotation. After a shaky start, Leake has responded with 5 consecutive quality starts and a 1.59 ERA to drop his ERA to 3.82, and his OPS to .696. He figures to continue that momentum of good starts against a less than mediocre offensive Cincinnati.

We are eager to make this play on the run line. If you read my accompanying run line article today, you will see that more than in any of the 7 previous seasons, games are decided by 2 or more runs (72% of the time). No one in MLB is better at winning games on the road by 2 or more runs than these St Louis Cardinals. 

Note that the Cards have been beating up on inferior teams all season long. They now stand 22-10 when NOT facing quality NL teams, such as Washington, San Francisco, LA Dodgers, Pittsburgh, and the Cubs. They need these victories to keep pace with the Pirates and close the gap on the Cubs. For your MLB Picks, expect them to do well in this 3 game set beginning tonight in this total MLB Odds mismatch. 

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Free MLB Pick:  Cardinals -1½ +105
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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