Spotted Run is Best Bet, Despite Steep Odds: Angels +1.5 vs. Mariners

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, July 9, 2015 12:03 PM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 9, 2015 12:03 PM GMT

In what should be a close game between the Mariners and Angels, whichever team was going to be the dog on the run-line creates betting value. Find out which way to go as our MLB handicapper analyzes the lines and gives his MLB Pick.

The Perks of Being Local
Being that I live in the Pacific Northwest I get to cover the Mariners quite a bit. One of the reasons for this is that I get local coverage of the team, and thus some insight into goings on that some of the folks on the East Coast might not get. For instance, the Mariners manager, Lloyd McClendon, has been absent for the Detroit series to attend the funeral services of his sister (that sucks). In his place is Trent Jewett, a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization with Lloyd who came with him when he joined the Mariners. Of course, Jewett is an NL style manager, which has… absolutely nothing to do with how the Mariners have done the last few days. The Mariners didn’t win yesterday and they likely came the closest you can to winning without actually pulling the trigger. Losing by one run, and going 0-14 with RISP to boot, takes some skill.

Alas, the Mariners are back at it on Thursday against the Angels in their last home series before the All-Star break. Now seven games below .500, this series is truly a ‘must win’ or the Mariners will start trading away for pieces to compete in 2016. Luckily for them their ace, Felix Hernandez, is on the mound. The Angels on the other hand have won five in a row and are now just 1.5 games back of Houston in the AL West coming into this game. The money line on this game opened at -117 in favor of the home team Mariners, with the O/U run total listed at 6.5 in multiple books.

 

Starting Pitchers
With Felix Hernandez starting for Seattle, and Garrett Richards starting for the Angels, the betting public will scrutinize career numbers against each opponent, as those numbers have been fantastic as of late. Felix Hernandez is 5-0 with a 0.93 ERA in his last nine starts against the Angels. Garrett Richards is 3-0 with a 0.97 ERA in his last five starts against Seattle, and comes into the game with 14.1 consecutive shutout innings pitched against the Mariners. All indications are that this is going to be another fantastic pitching matchup; however, the juice on the O/U line has move to its opening +106 to -115 at Pinnacle. This is not an insignificant line move and shows the betting public is locked into the offensive performances of each team in the last week, which have been superb.

 

Baseball Betting Veredict
While this should be a fantastic game to watch, the lines look pretty sharp on both the money line and total. Which leaves us with the run line where the Angels are getting 1.5 runs, but have to give up some heavy chalk at -193 to get it at books such as Heritage. Interestingly enough, the money line is moving towards Seattle while the run line is moving towards the Angels. Digging into it a little deeper, that extra run is going to be gold coming into this matchup. The Angels have lost only two out 15 starts by Garrett Richards by more than 1 run, with the other games being one run losses or outright wins. I know it’s a lot of juice to give up with your MLB pick, but this matchup is going to be tight.

MLB Pick:  Angels -193 +1.5 on the run line at Heritage

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