Sports BIT: Marco Estrada Is Perennially Undervalued

Teddy Covers

Wednesday, May 25, 2016 3:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 25, 2016 3:26 PM UTC

Today’s MLB Pick is on the Yankees – Blue Jays Under. Teddy and Pauly focused on how Marco Estrada is perennially undervalued in the betting markets.

SportsBIT aims high.  The show is designed by bettors, for bettors, a true ‘Sportscenter for Gamblers’.  And SportsBIT is looking to cement its status as the ‘go-to’ destination for accurate and detailed information. 

On every show, Teddy and Pauly devote one full segment to breaking down a handful of big games for the upcoming day from a Vegas perspective.  On every show, they do ‘post mortem’ work on the games from the previous day, looking to give bettors an edge moving forward.  And every show closes with a ‘Play of the Day’ recommendation, offering a rock solid betting opinion on one of the games (or involving one of the betting concepts) that they previously discussed on the show.

These daily SportsBIT articles haven’t focused too much on the Play of the Day record or recommendations.  Today is a good day to end that informational drought.  There have been a handful of ‘Play of the Day’ recommendations with outcomes that have not yet been determined, like Teddy and Pauly’s recommendation to take the Houston Cougars Under 9 wins in the early college football win total betting markets.  But most of the Play of the Day recommendations are just that – plays for that day, with outcomes that will be determined before the next show tapes.

And frankly, the results have been pretty good. Teddy and Pauly have delivered seven out of ten winning weeks with those ‘POD’ bets, and they’re well on their way to making it eight out of eleven; off to a 2-0 start this week after the Nationals Run Line at +140 cashed on Tuesday.

Today’s Play of the Day recommendation is on the Yankees – Blue Jays Under.  Teddy and Pauly focused on how Marco Estrada is perennially undervalued in the betting markets because his advanced metric stats always show vulnerability.  Estrada’s FIP has been higher than his ERA in each of the last three seasons.  Meanwhile, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) has been lower than the MLB average by a wide margin in each of those three years. 

Teddy and Pauly explain why and how Estrada’s advanced metric numbers are lying to the betting markets.   They talk about the strength of the Yankees bullpen and the remarkable numbers Ivan Nova has put up in early season play.  The end result?  A recommendation on the Yankees – Blue Jays Under 9, as the Play of the Day for Wednesday.  Check out the full show right here, right now

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