When wiseguy bettors aren’t getting involved in run lines a major way, that offers legitimate opportunity for recreational players to step in and make a profit off the MLB odds boards.
Betting baseball is no easy task, even for experienced bettors. All week on SportsBIT, Teddy and Pauly have been sharing positive expectation betting strategies for the 2016 MLB campaign. On Thursday’s show, they bring in MLB bullpen expert Rob Veno for another Deep Dive into the modern MLB marketplace.
MLB Run Line bets are generally considered a ‘square’ wager, not something the sharp $$ gets involved with on a daily basis. The run lines themselves are set by rote, using an algorhythm that primarily factors in the full game moneyline with the total. When wiseguy bettors aren’t getting involved in a major way, that offers legitimate opportunity for recreational players to step in and make a profit – by laying -1.5 with the chalk, a -150 favorite becomes a plus price underdog on the MLB odds boards.
In order to bet Run Lines successfully for profit, bettors must have a clear idea about two things. First, what bullpens are capable of holding leads, and which pens are primed for a bevy of late inning meltdowns? And secondly, which lineups are capable of putting ‘crooked numbers’ up on the scoreboard, turning tight games into Run Line Blowouts?
A potent lineup and a strong bullpen make for a strong Run Line favorite. A weak lineup and a ‘gas can’ bullpen give bettors the very best teams to fade on the Run Line. Identifying those two areas of strength and weakness early in the season give bettors a tremendous opportunity to cash in betting Run Lines right here in April.
So, who are the ‘bet-on’ teams when it comes to Run Lines and who are the ‘bet-against’ squads? Rob Veno gives SportsBIT viewers a nice list. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals and Royals all have strong lineups, primed to put up runs in bunches. The Dodgers, Indians, Giants, Rangers and Cardinals are a notch below, but all with legit ‘offensive explosion’ potential. And Veno gives special attention to the Tigers, his #1 Over team thanks to a top tier lineup combined with a bottom tier bullpen.
Elite bullpens include the Royals, Yankees, Pirates and Astros. Right behind them, the Rangers, Dodgers and Orioles all have upgraded bullpens, capable of holding late inning leads, making those squads solid ‘bet-on’ squads when it comes to the Run Line. As for Veno’s list of ‘bet-against’ lineups and bullpens? You’ll have to watch today’s show to find out!