Lots to cover in the world of sports betting. Teddy and Pauly discuss Big Game Breakdowns and NIT semi-finals on today's show. Also get an inside MLB betting preview right here from Pualy.
There’s plenty of basketball analysis on Tuesday’s SportsBIT, with Teddy and Pauly delivering Big Game Breakdowns for the Cavs vs. Rockets on TNT as well as Valpo vs. BYU and San Diego State vs. George Washington in the NIT semi-finals on ESPN. But make no mistake about it – the shows this week are focusing on the upcoming baseball season, with Opening Day slated for Sunday.
After the hosts go through the bad beats (truly BRUTAL loss for Portland Trail Blazers backers last night) and bad bets (Lakers, for example, in the single worst loss of Kobe’s entire career), Teddy delivers an impassioned take on the nature of the MLB betting markets circa 2016.
Over the last five years, the MLB odds boards have rapidly adjusted to reflect the most influential ‘advanced metric’ stats for starting pitchers. What are those stats? For starting pitching, the markets are fixated on two things: xFIP and K/9 rates. Teddy focuses on the strikeouts per nine innings metric, showing how ALL of the top starters in this category were money losers last year, simply overpriced in the markets. Aces and Cy Young Winners like Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber and Chris Sale all cost their backers money in 2015.
When every ace is overpriced and costing their backers money, that’s truly a convoluted betting marketplace. It’s often VERY confusing to beginning bettors who are more used to the type of ‘standard’ pointspread wagering that we see in football and hoops. Even the nuances of the MLB markets are bizarre on paper. The 81-80 Indians were far pricier to support (average lay price of -120) than the defending AL Champs (in 2014) and eventual World Series champs (in 2015) KC Royals, whose average lay price was only -111.
How did this happen? Simple – the advanced metric pitching stats. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar all ranked in the Top 5 AL pitchers in that key K/9 stat. All three hurlers ranked in the Top 10 of the American League in xFIP as well. That resulted in Cleveland backers being forced to lay a higher price to support them.
KC didn’t have the type of starting pitching that measured well in the modern marketplace; devalued as a result. They were a Top 5 team in profitability during the regular season and the most profitable team to support in the postseason, in large part, due to the fact that you rarely had to lay a big price to support them. Starting pitchers like Chris Young or Edison Volquez were (and continue to be) thoroughly disrespected. Remember, this team was only favored THREE TIMES in the entirety of the postseason as they went on to win the World Series.
This is the type of info you’re not going to find anywhere else – true, legitimate wiseguy info, Direct from Vegas. Check out today’s full show above.