Padres-Giants Snoozer Worth Bettors' Attention to First Five 'Under'

San Diego Padres

Rainman M.

Saturday, April 14, 2018 8:12 PM GMT

Saturday, Apr. 14, 2018 8:12 PM GMT

The Padres host the Giants at 4:10 ET today to conclude a four-game series. Two rising pitching stars and a few other key betting circumstances will ensure a low-scoring first five innings.

MLB Sunday: Giants vs. PadresFree MLB Pick: First Five 'Under'
Best Line Offered: Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3387701, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,19,180,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Bettors need to know San Diego's rookie starter Joey Lucchesi (1-0 1.72 ERA). He has proven to be a reliable betting option in our MLB Picks because the first five 'under' has hit in two of his three starts. The one game in which the FF 'under' did not hit was in his first ever game in which he had some bad luck. His 2.62 FIP and .333 opposing BABIP in his season opener shows that his opponent was very fortunate with the balls which their bats put into play and he actually pitched very well. Lucchesi has been consistent to the point where he is pitching well in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in Colorado's. In his last two games he has achieved 15 strikeouts. He has shown good command, throwing a first-pitch strike 66% of the time and walking four batters on the season.

Watching videos of Lucchesi pitching is fascinating because his delivery involves two seemingly opposed steps even though it is effective. On the one hand, he drops low to the ground. Then, he releases his pitch with an elevated overhand. His unique delivery presents an additional challenge to hitters who see him for the first time and this contributes to his initial success.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": ""}[/]Lucchesi is additionally problematic for the Giants as a left-handed pitcher. Looking at the Giants' numbers against left-handed starters is unfair since they have faced Clayton Kershaw twice. But we see the same struggles against left-handed pitchers overall, against which their team BA is a paltry .228. Three of the Giants' top four hitters (based on batting average) are left-handed hitters. Two of them, Joe Panik and Brandon Belt, are hitting over .100 BA points lower against southpaws than against right-handed pitchers.

Tyler Beede (0-0 4.50 ERA) counters for San Fran. Beede is also a rookie who has underwent his baptism of fire, giving up two runs in a nervous first inning against Arizona before shutting them out the rest of his four-inning outing. Beede is the opposite of Lucchesi in that he relies more on the arsenal of his pitches than his command. His biggest pitch is a fastball, whose velocity he can easily elevate. This makes him a good match-up against the Padres in two important senses: the Padres rank 28th in team BA (.201) against the fastball. Secondly, their BA is .201 against pitchers who mix some power into their arsenal, as Beede does. His changeup is his second-most important pitch. It enhances the perceived velocity of his fastball by creating a change of pace with an approximate average of 10 mph lower velocity. Against Arizona, his change had a 10% whiff rate and was not contacted for a single hit.

Beede is a flyball pitcher. Against the Diamondbacks, he induced ground balls at a very low 36% rate and his pitches are generally designed to induce fly balls. The Padres are at their worst against flyball pitchers, with a .147 BA so far against them. They won't just wake up at 1:10 local playing time to hit this flyball pitcher either as they continue to hit very poorly in daytime games. Last year, their BA was .217 during the day while this year it is .164. An additional match-up advantage stems from being a right-handed pitcher. Against righties, the Padres are hitting .214. "Young Beedah" is as cool on the mound as he is as a rapper and his stuff and match-up advantages makes him trustworthy vs San Diego.

comment here