Smart Plays on Saturday's MLB Odds Focus on Chicago & Atlanta

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, August 15, 2015 5:24 PM GMT

We’re focus our savvy handicapping skills on Saturday’s matchups between the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves,  Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox.

Diamondbacks (Corbin) vs. Braves (Folynewisz) 7:10 PM ET
Pat Corbin has been very shaky during his previous two starts, posting a large 7.37 ERA and mammoth 2.18 WHIP in those outings. The Arizona southpaw hurler will be facing an Atlanta team today with a 52-63 record in 2015. Corbin has gone 12-2 over the total in his career starts versus opponents with a losing record. Those twelve games averaged a combined 12.0 runs scored per contest. Corbin has posted a lofty 5.84 ERA in three road starts this year. Arizona is averaging 5.9 runs per game, and has an impressive .319 team batting average during their previous seven outings.

Mike Foltynewicz has gone 5-1 over the total in his previous six starts. During those outings, he’s compiled a sizable 6.48 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and surrendered a whopping 10 home runs in only 33 1/3 innings pitched. Folynewisz made one start versus Arizona this season, and allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits while walking 2 in a 9-8 Braves loss.

I like game to be a high scoring affair for one of my MLB picks today. The major sportsbooks are divided on this total which is either 7.0 or 7.5. Based on my intended wager, I’ll be calling Heritage which has the best combination of number and price.

MLB Picks: Play on Arizona and Atlanta over 7.0 (-115) at Heritage.

 

Cubs (Arrieta) vs. White Sox (Quinatana) 7:10 PM ET
It would be hard to imagine anyone pitching at the level that Jake Arrietta has over his previous ten starts. During that stretch, Arrieta has a sensational 1.23 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and had two complete game wins. This isn’t anything new for the Cubs unheralded right-hander. He’s seen just 5 of 23 starts this season go over the total while posting a superb 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Jose Quintana has displayed very good form over his previous four starts, posting a stellar 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in those outings. The southpaw will be pitching on 5 days of rest today. Quintana is 11-2 under the total this season when pitching on 5 or 6 days of rest, and those contests averaged only a combined 5.4 runs scored per game. The White Sox are 35-20-1 under the total at home in 2015.

The Cubs have won eight straight, and are 14-1 during their last fifteen games. Their pitching has been solid all season, and now they’ve began to produce offensively during this recent hot stretch. Ironically, the White Sox bats have also came alive since the all star break. As a result, the general public has seemed to ignore how well today’s starting pitchers have performed, and chose instead to only focus on both clubs recent ability for scoring runs with more frequent regularity. I’m going to fade general public betting today and call for a low scoring game. The total of 7.5 is etched in stone across the major sportsbook landscape. JustBet requires the least amount of juice in order to make this specific wager.

MLB Picks: Play on the Cubs and White Sox under 7.5 (-105) at JustBet