Small Chalk Adds Value to our Monday MLB Picks of the Day

Monday, September 4, 2017 12:28 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 4, 2017 12:28 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop has started September on a 4-0 ATS run. Let's go streaking on Labor Day as he makes his vacation MLB Picks of the Day!

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The Mariners have been a streaky team all year, and after losing 5 in a row they came home and swept the Athletics. They get a Houston team that has been on the road forever since Hurricane Harvey took out their city.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariner

Erasmo Ramirez has been on a hot streak since joining the Seattle rotation, yet 5 of his 6 starts have been on the road in that time. This indicates how good he has been pitching, as his favorable split on the year is at home where he carries a 2.66 ERA and 3.38 FIP. What I’ve noticed about Ramirez’s peripheral batted ball statistics is that they are nearly identical home and away. So park factors, both in Tampa Bay and in his new home at Safeco, definitely have helped Ramirez so far this season. His last start in Safeco was a six-inning shutout performance against the Angels on August 12th.

Ramirez will face the Astros for the first time since 2015, where Dallas Keuchel takes the mound. Keuchel has been hittable of late and carries a 4.69 FIP in the second half of the season. Both his K/9 rate and BB/9 rate have moved in the wrong directions considerably since the All-Star break. Batted ball statistics show that batters are pulling the ball off of Keuchel in the last two months, which has contributed to his 20.8% HR/FB rate in the 2nd half of the season. With Ramirez pitching so well lately and getting nearly even odds on the underdog run line at home, I’ll take the Mariners as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners RL Best Line Offered Heritage

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Although Chase Anderson will show up on SBR Breadman’s xFIP fade list tomorrow, I like his chances of being average enough to take out the Cincinnati Reds and starter Homer Bailey.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Chase Anderson is due for a little regression with his 2.96 ERA against his 3.71 FIP this year. But that regression will still get him back to above average, and he’s still got a .212 BAA against lefties and .215 BAA against righties on the season. There are no holes in his current offerings for an opposing lineup to take advantage of, and even his road split isn’t that bad. Since coming off of the DL, Chase Anderson has not given up a line drive in 16 innings pitched.

Homer Bailey is also due for some negative xFIP regression, but going to 5.20 isn’t going to help him in this game. Bailey also carries a 9.95 home ERA into this game and a .339 BAA allowed. Control has been an issue of late, with a 5.59 BB/9 rate in August over 29 innings pitched. Anyone coming off of injury that suddenly loses control is a complete red flag for having a blowup start. I’ll be taking the Brewers here to fade that fact at a very reasonable price on the moneyline at BetOnline as one of my Monday MLB selections

MLB Picks: Milwaukee Brewers MLBest Line Offered BetOnline

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2017 MLB Record, 188-165-9, +10.41 units

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