Sizzling Hot Angels -1.5 Won't be Tamed by Twins' Meek Starter

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, July 22, 2015 1:08 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 22, 2015 1:08 PM UTC

We’re going to examine Wednesday’s American League game between the Twins and Angels. Will the Twins put an end to a three game losing streak? Find out here!

Twins Attempt to Tame Red-Hot Angels
The Angels and Twins will get together for their second of a three game series tonight in Anaheim at 10:05 PM ET. The Angels blanked the Twins on Tuesday 7-0 in the series opener. Since 2013 these teams have gone 10-2-2 over the total in their fourteen encounters, and the Angels went 9-5.


Home Plate Umpire
The scheduled home plate umpire for today’s game is Kerwin Danley. Some of the most recent intriguing data involving home plate umpires has to do with Danley. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons, Danley was 41-12 (77.3%) under the total (excluding pushes) as a home plate umpire. However, this season Danley is 8-5 over the total when calling balls and strikes. Home teams are 9-4 in 2015 with Danley behind the plate.


Starting Pitchers
The Twins will go with veteran right-hander Mike Pelfrey on the mound tonight. Pelfrey has been brutal in his last three starts evidenced by a large 9.88 ERA and 2.20 WHIP. Believe it or not, he’s been even worse than that in his last three starts on the road, posting a gigantic 17.68 ERA and 3.72 WHIP.

The Angels will turn to southpaw C.J. Wilson to make the start on Wednesday. Wilson has been rock solid in his last four starts with a stellar 2.36 ERA. Since 2014, Wilson has gone an outstanding 18-4 in his team starts when installed as a money line home favorite of -110 or more. The Angels had a sizable +2.4 run per game differential in those twenty-two games.


Uneven Home and Away Splits for Twins
Minnesota has gone a terrific 31-16 at home this season but things have been much different on the road. The Twins are 19-27 in away games, and most recently have dropped 13 of their last 19 on the road. Minnesota has lost three in a row overall heading into tonight, and scored just a combined three runs during that time.


Sizzling Hot Halos
The Angels are currently riding a six game winning streak, and are a superb 16-3 in their previous nineteen games. The pitching staff has been lights out over their last five games, shutting out the opposition four times, and allowed only 1 run on the other occasion. They’re 9-1 in the last ten in Anaheim, and are now 30-18 (.625) at home this season. The Halos have also produced offensively, hitting a robust .297 as a team, and averaging 6.7 runs per game in their previous fourteen outings.


MLB Betting Super Angle
The Angels possess a .250 team batting average heading into today. The Twins Mike Pelfrey has a 4.00 ERA in seventeen starts this season. At the time of this writing, 5Dimes has the Angels as a -170 money line favorite. This data qualifies for an extremely profitable betting angle that I’ll utilize when making one of my MLB picks for Wednesday.

Any money line favorite (Angels) of -150 or more playing in July, possessing a team batting average of .260 or less, and is facing a starting pitcher (Pelfrey) with an ERA of 4.20 or less, resulted in that favorite going 63-14 (81.8%) since 1997. More importantly in regards to my wager, the favorite had a mammoth +2.9 run per game differential in those seventy-seven contests.

MLB Pick:  Angels -1.5 (+120) on the run-line at 5Dimes.

comment here