Short Term Momentum is Key Indicator of Success in MLB Betting & This Game is a Perfect Example

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, June 11, 2015 12:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 11, 2015 12:38 PM UTC

The Brewers come of a loss last night which ended their winning streak, and tonight they'll meet again with the Nationals. Which team will be the one to play in order to cash on the MLB odds?

Washington Nationals (Roark) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Garza) 8:10 ET
With 90% of MLB teams finishing between .400 and .600, it is important to note that short-term momentum can identify winning and losing streaks that make up the bulk of a team's profit and loss.  Such is the case tonight, as Washington comes off a win last night that broke a negative losing streak, while Milwaukee comes off a loss last night that broke a positive winning streak.  Washington visits Milwaukee for the first of a 4-game set that is a matchup of a team in Washington, who is projected to be the best in the National League against a Milwaukee team, who is again pegged as an also ran.  Actually, each of these teams have underachieved expectations.   But with Washington flashing a buy sign last night and Milwaukee confirming their bottom of the barrel status, I definitively favor the Nationals to continue the Brewer's misery with my MLB picks.

With a batting OPS of .664 and pitching OPS of .752, Milwaukee has a pair of numbers that are at the bottom of the league.  With a pair of victories vs. Pittsburgh earlier, there was a ray of hope for Milwaukee.  But, the Brewers played to form in last night's (2-0) loss to Pittsburgh, leaving them at 22-38 for the year.  Tonight's starter, Garza, is clearly not the answer.  Milwaukee has won just 4 of 11 of his starts in which he has posted a 5.09 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. 

The Nationals flashed a buy sign last night with a 5-4 victory over the NY Yankees.  That snapped a 7-game winning streak for the New Yorkers, as well as busting a 3-game losing streak to Washington.  Washington has been a streaky team this year.  They broke from the gate at 7-13 before running off an 18-4 streak.  Until last night, they had been 5-11 of late.  Tonight, I call the turn.  Roark has been a pleasant surprise for the Washington rotation.  He had pitched to a 3.16 ERA with an 0.96 WHIP in 4 turns through the rotation.  Against the weak hitting Milwaukee bats, he again could be dominant. 

It has never been hard to play against Milwaukee this season.  Even in a recent 6-3 run which was broken last night, the bats are never booming.  Washington is a team who has underachieved expectations but has turned the corner following the 5-11 slide.  I play the short term momentum of these teams, along with an advantage on the mound for a resounding win by Washington against the weakest team in the league.

MLB Pick: Take Washington Nationals at The Greek

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