Sheer Betting Value Siding With Rockies vs. Overrated Cardinals

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, May 19, 2016 2:07 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 19, 2016 2:07 PM UTC

The Rockies saw their five-game winning streak snapped last night in the second game of a three-game set with the Cardinals. Let’s review the MLB odds in this rubber match and cash a ticket.

2016 MLB Record: 21-11, +9.71 units

Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Colorado Rockies (20-19, +5.4 units)
The Rockies have been underestimated by the MLB odds makers this season. They are currently 20-19 and in second place in the NL West. But more importantly for sports bettors, the Rockies are actually +5.4 units for all of those who have kept the faith and included them in their MLB picks this season. You don’t get to be one game above .500 and over five units to the good unless you’ve been labeled an underdog in far more games than not. During their five-game winning streak the Rockies were underdogs in all but one. Last night they were again but this time the dog did not howl as Colorado bowed 2-0 to their hosts, the St. Louis Cardinals.

Tonight the Rocks hand the ball to Jon Gray (1-1, 4.71) who earned his first career victory in his last outing against the Mets. The 24-year-old righty stuck out eight and allowed two runs on five hits in Colorado’s 5-2 victory over the New York on Friday. Prior to that, Gray surrendered only one hit and no runs in his seven innings of work against San Francisco but Colorado’s offense was out to pasture as they wound up losing the game 2-1 to the Giants. This will be Gray’s first start against St. Louis.

St. Louis Cardinals (21-19, -1.5 units)
Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright delivered a solid performance last night as he shut the Rockies out over six plus innings en route to a 2-0 win. Matt Holiday provided the offensive heroics with a two run double that led to the victory. Despite plating just three runs over their last pair of games St. Louis owns one of the best offenses in the majors at the quarter mark of the season. The Cardinals are 3rd in runs scored, 5th in team batting average, 4th in on base percentage and 2nd in slugging percentage.

Michael Wacha (2-4, 3.23) gets the nod tonight for the Cards and hopes to snap his four game funk. The 24-year-old right-hander has taken the loss in those last four outings with the latest being an 8-4 setback against the Dodgers. Wacha allowed six runs (two earned) in his four inning stint and had his defense, or lack thereof, to blame for his early exit. Wacha is 1-1 when starting against the Rockies with an ERA of 3.93 and a WHIP of 1.472. His team's record is 1-2 (-1.7 units) in these starts.


Betting Analysis
Though Wacha has been beaten in his last four his ERA is surprisingly good. In his last performance against the Rockies he pitched a masterful game at home when he allowed just four hits and shut Colorado down en route to the 7-0 Cardinals victory in July of last year.

The Rockies’ Jon Gray experienced a pair of rough outings in April when the Dodgers and Pirates whacked him around for a combined 11 runs in just eight plus innings of work. But since that time he has been better than good. Gray has allowed just 10 hits and four runs combined over his last three starts and 20 innings of work.

As good as the Cardinals’ offense has been up to this point the Rockies have been equally as good. Colorado ranks 4th in runs scored, 3rd in team batting average, 7th in on base percentage and 4th in slugging percentage. Of course the thin air of Coors Field helps those rankings but they are nevertheless a team that can do damage.

The oddsmakers are making the Cardinals a bigger favorite than they deserve. Therefore, based on sheer betting value I am siding with the visiting Rockies and a pitcher that looks like he has gotten into a groove and is good enough to stay there.

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Free MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies +129
Best Line Offered: at GTBets

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