Sharps Expect Quality At-Bats in NY: Pick Over 6.5 D'Backs-Mets

Charles Stark

Friday, July 10, 2015 3:37 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 10, 2015 3:37 PM UTC

I try to avoid paying too much juice when betting baseball, but today's matchup is intriguing. I'll take the over when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the New York Mets even though the juice is a little bit high for my taste.

High Juice
MLB odds makers have come out with this line at 6.5 and to me that is simply too low with two decent pitchers on the mound, a good hitting team in Arizona, and a good home hitting team in the Mets. With the numbers I can see why this line is set so low but I'm pretty sure this will get up to 7 before first pitch. The juice is a little bit high across the board at most books but at Pinnacle sports book you can get it at   -118 and at Heritage sports book you can get it at -115, most every other place you'll see this around -120.


For the Diamondbacks Chase Anderson gets the call and comes in with a 3.71 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, I enjoy watching him pitch. It is easy to see though that he has not been sharp recently and on the road he has struggled a little bit this year, at times he's been hot and at times he's been cold. In his last three games he has allowed 15 runs in his last 17 innings, and although New York is not one of the better hitting teams in the National League they do tend to score a lot more runs at home.

For the Mets Noah Syndergaard will take the mound with a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and is been really solid for the Mets so far this season. Unlike Anderson he has been sharp in his last three outings allowing only five runs in his last 18 innings, and he pitchers well at home. Still, the Diamondbacks are one of the better hitting teams in the National League and should be able to plate a few runs off of him to help us get over this total. He is still a really young pitcher at only 22, and although his numbers are strong he still has only 10 career starts under his belt.


At the Plate
Statistically the Diamondbacks are one of the best hitting teams not only in the National League but in the major leagues ranking third in runs scored per game. The Mets are ranked 28th in runs scored per game, but there are much better scoring runs at home and go from being ranked in the bottom to more of the middle tiered type of offense. The same type of theme goes for most of the important offensive stats like in on base plus slugging percentage where the Diamondbacks are ranked eighth in the major league and the Mets rank dead last. But once again at home the Mets go from being at the bottom of this category to again being more of the middle tiered type offense. Just to make my point one last time in batting average Arizona ranks sixth in the major leagues and the Mets rank 29th, but we see a difference in New York as they hit only .229 on the road but .236 at home.  The Mets on the offensive end statistically are nothing to shout about, but they're coming back from a six game west coast road trip and a day off so look for them to have some quality at-bats today at home where they are much more comfortable at the plate.


Baseball Betting Verdict
Both these pitchers today are pretty solid but a bit overvalued in my opinion at that low total of 6.5. I'm not a fan of the juice being higher than -110 but I think the value is with the over in this game and we should see some good at-bats against both these pitchers, back the over with confidence.

MLB Picks: Over 6.5 +105 at Bovada

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