Shaky Offense In Royals vs. Yankees Makes For A Clean 'Under' MLB Pick

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, May 10, 2016 11:10 AM GMT

Tuesday, May. 10, 2016 11:10 AM GMT

Our MLB odds handicapper looks to continue on his 16-8-1 season record as he breaks down an intriguing pitching matchup between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees.

2016 YTD MLB: 16-8-1, +7.89 Units.

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
The disappointing New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night, in a game featuring two of the weakest offenses in the MLB. As such the O/U total has opened at just 7.5 runs across the board. The pitching matchup is a mismatch on paper, where the Yankees have the upper hand and are favored  in the MLB odds at -164 at Bookmaker. If you want to play the run line, you can get spotted 1.5 to take the Royals in a wager that pays -140 at Pinnacle.

Investigating this pitching matchup deeper, one will find that the Kansas City Royals starter, Kris Medlen, has been playing as a different person away from Kaufmann Stadium. His home and away performance splits are nothing short of incredible. On the year in all games, Medlen is posting a 6.85 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .273 batting average against. However, on the road – where 3 of his 5 starts have been so far – Medlen has posted a 2.16 ERA and .164 batting average against. He has yet to give up more that 2 earned runs in a road start this year.

Masahiro Tanaka & The Yankees
Starting for the New York Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka, who has had a great start to the season and continues where he left off in 2015. On the year over six starts Tanaka has posted a 2.29 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and .200 batting average against. Surprisingly, Tanaka has compiled just a 1-0 win-loss record in those starts as he has had terrible run support. One reason that Tanaka has had success this year is that he has been very good at keeping the ball on the ground. Tanaka’s 59.6% ground ball rate on balls in play is well over his 48.4% career average, suggesting that his split-seam fastball is working overtime. Keeping the ball on the ground also keeps Tanaka from giving up too many dingers at home as well.

Back to the weak offenses that these pitchers will be facing, the New York Yankees currently have the 27th ranked offense in the MLB according to compiled WAR. They are just ahead of the powerhouse Athletics, Phillies, and Braves. Their .232 team batting average also ranks 27th in the league, and both their runs scored and RBI’s are 2nd to last. In that regard, the Royals have scored exactly one more run and RBI than the Yankees on the season coming into Monday night’s games and are tied for 27th in the league. These offenses have been piss poor at actually scoring runs on the season thus far.

 

Conclusions
These offensive numbers have played into some profitable trends, as the O-U totals for the Royals is 9-19 on the year. Not behind by much, the Yankees have put up a 10-16 O-U record, and are 4-11 O-U against righties.

The pitchers also exhibit some nice trends to take into consideration coming into this one, as Kris Medlen is a perfect 3-0 favoring the Under on the road this year. Masahiro Tanaka is 5-1 favoring the Under and most haven’t been close to sniffing the over either.

I think you all know where I am going with this, so now it is time to do some line shopping. With Medlen sporting a high ERA because of his home woes, I don’t think this total moves down much if at all. I’m taking Under 7.5 runs at -105 at Heritage as one of my MLB picks for Tuesday.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 8 +100
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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