Shade Tanaka & Yankees with MLB Picks vs. Towel-Tossing Braves

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, August 28, 2015 12:11 PM GMT

Friday, Aug. 28, 2015 12:11 PM GMT

The New York Yankees visit the Atlanta Braves for the first of a three game weekend set Friday night. This is clearly a case of late August super surger vs towel tosser.

MLB Betting Preview for Yankess vs. Braves
The New York Yankees visit the Atlanta Braves for the first of a three game weekend set Friday night. With both Toronto and NYY losing their most recent games, Toronto clings to a 1.5 game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Atlanta stopped playing long ago; they enter tonight on a 4-18 slide. The first clue to their demise was their OPS numbers. The Braves’ offense is last in MLB with a .674 OPS. Overall pitching and the bullpen each rank 26th in MLB. Those numbers give them no hope for the rest of the season.

Earlier this week, I authored an article speaking of a system in which we highlight the Dog Days of August.  In that article I detailed the fact that August super surgers (teams with playoff motivation) vs towel tossers (Atlanta, Philly, Miami, Milwaukee, and Colorado, who are going nowhere in the National League) were 65-9 ON THE RUN LINE vs those towel tossing opponents through Wednesday, August 26, 2015.

 

Pitching Breakdown
On the mound tonight for the Braves will be W. Perez. Atlanta had won just 5 of his 13 starts, in which he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His mound opponent tonight is Tanaka for the Yankees. NYY has won 12 of his 18 starts, in which he has a 1.03 WHIP. That YTD work has been slightly better on the road, where the Yankees have won 5 of 7 Tanaka starts, and he has posted a 1.01 road WHIP. Clear advantage from the mound with NYY when you add their #4 ranked bullpen with a .643 OPS. Referring to our article regarding the dog days of August, we note the discrepancy in run line results for these two teams. The Yankees are 32-31 on the road, with 26 of those 32 road victories by 2+ runs. Conversely, Atlanta has 27 losses at home, with 25 of those defeats coming by 2+ runs.

 

Final Analysis
This is clearly a case of late August super surger vs towel tosser. Trailing Toronto for the divisional lead, the New Yorkers will be playing with far more intensity than an Atlanta team who has long ago tossed the towel. With a dominant edge across the board on the mound, and the far superior OPS numbers (NYY has a .750 OPS compared to the .674 Atlanta OPS), we can only look to the New York Yankees in this contest with our MLB Pick for Friday. With full run line support, and backed by the 65-9 record of the dog days of August, we play the Yankees on the run line with confidence.

MLB Pick: NY Yankees -1.5 runs (-125) at 5Dimes

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