First, our MLB handicapper was on self-imposed Fade Watch, but now it is definitely the Nationals, who could find themselves at .500 with a loss today. Read on to find the value play in this game for your Saturday MLB Pick.
Alright, alright, alright. Yesterday we talked about what ‘yesterday me’ would have done, and it turns out that he wasn’t so stupid after all. To clarify, yesterday me wanted to follow the general rule of taking a home dog when getting a run and a half. You know, general rules usually get created for a reason. I had a hunch that the Nationals would light up Cain, but I don’t think anyone foresaw that Scherzer would get lit up as well. It was a poor showing by both pitchers or a fine showing by the offenses. Nobody will be able to the difference except that I’m going to tell you exactly what it was in the following 400 words.
Jake Peavy takes the mound for the Giants tonight and he’s been pitching like his old self over the last month. His win-loss record doesn’t show it, but a 28/5 K/BB ratio over the last five games is pretty solid. Last time out on August 9th, he gave up 2 ER to the Cubs in Chicago. It’s pretty hard to keep the ball in the yard in Chicago in August so I’d assume Peavy was hitting his spots. In twelve career starts against the Nationals, Peavy is carrying a 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .255 BAA, and an 83/22 K/BB rate. No Nationals batter really lights him up, although Bryce Harper has reached base in 5 of 6 attempts against Peavy.
Gio Gonzalez hasn’t given up more than 2 ER over his last eight starts, and ruled the Giants in his last start against them on July 3rd. Somehow within that span though, the Nationals are only 5-3. The recent efforts have Gonzalez’s ERA down a point from late June to 3.50. His WHIP is more middle of the road at 1.42, and his BAA belies some luck has been going his way at .275. Gonzalez pitches well against the Giants though, and has a 2.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .245 ERA against them over eight starts.
As last night showed, any pitching matchup can go sideways when a starter has a bad day. This offensive performance by the Giants was much needed against Washington, who had scored three or less runs in games versus them over the ten of the last fifteen games they’ve played. Washington needed the breakout even more, as they’ve struck out an amazing 189 times over the last twenty games on the road.
MLB Betting Verdict
In a rematch of July 3rd’s matchup between these pitchers in which Gio Gonzalez won 2-1, the odds have Washington favored slightly at -109 at Heritage. The O/U total opened at 6.5, but has since lifted to 7 at sites such as Heritage. It can still be found at 6.5 and -120 at multiple sites if that suits your fancy. After not following the general rule of taking home dogs yesterday though, I’m going to atone for my mistake and hone in on the run line. There I can find the Giants getting +1.5 at just -165 at 5Dimes. That’s good enough for me as I expect a very similar game to the July 3rd matchup in which the Giants +1.5 was a winner. Take the run and a half and the Giants -165 as your Saturday MLB Pick.
The MLB Pick: Giants +1.5