SF's Winning Record's Too Giant for Struggling Marlins: Fade this False Favorite

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 30, 2015 5:32 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2015 5:32 PM GMT

Your false favorite pick of the Day finds the No. 28 team in the league favored over a perennial winner, who has the best of it on the mound. 

San Francisco Giants (Vogelsong) vs. Miami Marlins (Latos)  7:10 ET
The San Francisco Giants, the defending champs and winners of 3 World Series titles in 5 years, visit the Miami Marlins (who are without the best hitter in the league, Stanton) for the first of an early week 3-game set.  The Giants are 42-35 this year, again battling LAD for NL West superiority.  Miami has the No. 28th record in the league at 31-46, better than only Philly and Milwaukee.  Vogelsong is the hotter starter, who is by far having the better year.  Yet, the current line, at Pinnacle Sports Book, has the Miami Marlins listed as a 110 favorite. We are all in!

Miami is suffering an injury plagued season with 2 of their best starters, Fernandez and Alvarez, currently out of the lineup.  Worse news comes with the fact that the league’s best hitter, Giancarlo Stanton, with a slugging percentage of .800 this month, an MLB leading 27 HR with 67 RBIs will be out for 4 weeks after surgery on his broken left hand. The Marlins limp in on a 2-9 slide, in which they scored only 21 runs. Today’s starting pitcher, Latos, was expected to step up in the absence of the injured starters.  He has not!  Miami has won just 4 of 12 Latos’ starts. He is 2-5 for the year with a 5.49 ERA.  And, he has been worse from this mound.  In 7  home starts, Latos is 1-3 with a 7.60 ERA.  Things got no better for the veteran righty, when he allowed 5 runs in 7 IP in his last trip to the mound (a 6-1 loss to St. Louis).  Both Latos and the Marlins are a pure PLAY AGAINST at this time.

The streaky Giants have been through runs of 9-13, 21-7, 7-13 and currently 8-1 this season.  In those previous 9 games, the defending champions have scored 64 runs.  Vogelsong has led the charge, allowing no runs in 12 2/3 IP of his previous 2 starts.  Vogelsong will have lots of confidence, knowing that in 6 previous matchups vs. Miami, he has posted a 1.67 ERA.

You will never go far wrong playing a team with a winning record as underdog vs. a losing team.  This is the only such scenario, we have on the board in Tuesday’s play.  Combined with the Giants’ pedigree and the Marlins’ injuries, this looks almost too good to be true!  With Vogelsong in far better current form and Latos struggling from this mound, we can only see the Giants as the Top Underdog Play of the Day.

MLB Pick: Take San Francisco Giants +106 at BetOnline

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