Severino & Yankees the Right Call at Astros

Luis Severino

Willie Bee

Wednesday, May 2, 2018 1:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 2, 2018 1:00 PM UTC

It’s a playoff atmosphere in Houston where the Astros and Yankees are 1-1 after two games, and we have a free baseball pick for their Wednesday night battle on ESPN.

New York Yankees (19-10 SU, 17-11-1 O/U) vs Houston Astros (20-11 SU, 12-17-2 O/U)

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Free MLB Pick: Yankees -110
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Having split the first two games of the series, the New York Yankees and Houston Astros head into Wednesday’s prime-time broadcast on ESPN (8 PM ET) primed for another pitching duel. Luis Severino (4-1, 2.61) is set for the visitors against Dallas Keuchel (1-4, 4.00) for the Astros, and Bookmaker gives a slight edge to New York on a -113 money line with 7½ for the scoreboard target.

Yogi Berra, who had ties to both franchises, would’ve loved Monday’s series opener since it was déjà vu all over again. Houston posted a 2-1 decision, the same score as Games 1 and 2 of last year’s ALCS in Houston, behind Charlie Morton’s strong effort on the mound. Gary Sanchez helped the Yankees knot the series on Tuesday with a 9th-inning homer that ended a 0-0 deadlock. Going back to the ALCS, five of the last six in Houston have finished ‘under.’

Can Severino Avenge Two Losing Starts In ALCS?

Severino’s plain nasty when he’s on, and definitely making friends with bettors who are 5-1 in his starts, the only loss as an underdog and four of the five wins covering -1½ run lines. Houston’s lineup was patient against him during last year’s ALCS, fouling off pitches and extending at bats to keep him from getting through five innings either trip to the bump. This is just his second regular season start at Minute Maid, last year’s effort not so good (5.1 IP, 6 ER) as Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel combined for seven hits.

Keuchel hasn’t pitched well and is coming off a clunker vs. Oakland the last time out as -160 chalk on the baseball odds board, but he wasn’t as bad as his record indicated before that. The former Razorback also has a nice track record against the Yankees, and especially on the mound in Houston where he’s 2-1 in three tries with a 0.76 ERA, including seven shutout innings for the win in Game 1 of the 2017 ALCS.

Umpire Trends, Roof Report & A Free Pick

Alfonso Marquez, who is filling in for Mike DiMuro on Mark Wegner’s crew, is expected to call the mound offerings tonight. It’s his seventh plate assignment of 2018, the first six going ‘over’ before working an ‘under’ winner on Chicago’s South Side last Friday. Though not to that degree, Marquez has trended ‘over’ the last four seasons with five of his last seven in Houston falling short of the numbers.

The threat of rain and high humidity in the Houston area should lead to the roof being shut at Minute Maid Park. I’m going with Severino and the Yankees for my free MLB pick.

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