Severino and Yankees are Barking-Dogs Against Houston Tonight

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, October 14, 2017 2:26 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017 2:26 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper was all set for a run line Houston win until the last batter on Friday night. He looks to the bullpens for a tie breaking vote on how to wager on Game 2 of the ALCS.

Yankees- Severino vs. Astros-Verlander

With the Houston Astros leaving Kenneth Giles in a batter too long last night, we lost our Houston wager on the run line in the most inconvenient fashion for Game 1. No odds are out for the Cubs and Dodgers game while I write this, so let’s go ahead and look at the pitching matchup for Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.

The Yankees have name their young ace, Luis Severino, as the starter for Game 2 of this series. Severino put up a 3.07 FIP and 14-6 record in the regular season, as well as putting up decent splits against both left-handers (.218 BAA) and righties (.198 BAA). I did notice that he was having trouble pitching in pressure the last time I handicapped one of his starts, yet he was able to win anyway. However, Severino has given up 2 home runs in each of his postseason appearances.

Severino has faced Houston twice this year and has come out with a no-decision and one loss. Both starts were of the shorter variety for him, as he only lasted into the 3rd inning in his first start and got blasted for 6 earned runs in his second start. In both starts his BABIP was off the charts, which shows a bit of luck was a part of the negative results.

Starting for the Astros is Justin Verlander who has had a boost to his season after getting traded to the Astros. His second half season numbers are much better than the first, with his FIP dropping significantly from 4.29 to 3.37. Verlander’s velocity is back with his fastball averaging 96 or above in many starts the last few weeks. The other major improvement has been his control and he has lowered his BB/9 rate from 4.39 to 1.87 from the first to the second half of the season. He hasn’t pitched against the Yankees this year, but has picked up victories in his first two postseason appearances against Boston – one being his first relief appearance of his career.

With Houston not likely having Kenneth Giles available for this game after last night’s extended appearance, their bullpen appears to be a bit vulnerable. Everybody is throwing gas out of the Yankees bullpen of course, but Aroldis Chapman will be fresh. With a pretty even matchup in starting pitching here, I like how the bullpens set up for the Yankees in this game. I will take them on the moneyline at +125 at 5Dimes as my Saturday MLB Pick.

Post-Season MLB Pick: Yankees ML
Best Line Available is +125 at 5Dimes

2017 MLB Record, 220-196-11, +9.39 units

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