Series Coverage for Phillies vs. Dodgers: MLB Picks

Darin Zank

Monday, April 21, 2014 3:45 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 21, 2014 3:45 PM GMT

After losing the first two games of this series LA got on the board Wednesday night with a 5-2 victory. The Dodgers got another quality outing from Zack Greinke, and the offense rapped out 12 hits, including seven for extra bases.

 

24th April
Phillies vs. Dodgers Game 4

By: Ron Patrick

 

LA won as a -165 favorite on Wednesday's MLB odds board, and the game sneaked OVER its total of 6.5 runs when the Dodgers' Justin Turner knocked in the last run of the game on a two-out single in the bottom of the eighth. 

The Phillies bullpen gave up three runs in two innings of work Wednesday night, and now ranks dead last in the Majors among bullpens with a 5.64 ERA.

On a personnel note Dodgers 2B Dee Gordon, who leads the Majors with 12 stolen bases, missed Wednesday's game after getting banged up while stealing a base Tuesday night. His status for Thursday is uncertain.

LA will try to salvage a split of this series when the teams meet Thursday night (10:10 pm ET).

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Thursday's Betting Line
In early betting action the Dodgers and Dan Haren were chalked at around -170 over Philly and Kyle Kendrick, with a total of 7.5 runs. LA could also be played at around +125 on the run line.

 

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up
Haren (3-0, 2.16) is off to an excellent start for his new team. He's three-for-four on quality starts so far this season, and the Dodgers have won all four of his outings. Most recently Haren gave up five runs in 7 1/3 innings against Arizona, but only two of those runs were earned.

For the season the former Cardinal/A/Diamondback/Angel/Nat has permitted just six ER and 24 hits through 25 innings, with two walks and 20 strikeouts.

Pitching for Washington last year Haren started four times against the Phillies, giving up 11 ER and 22 hits in 24 innings, whiffing 27. The Nationals lost three of those games.

Kendrick (0-2, 3.60) is also three-for-four on quality starts this year, including two for his last two. Eleven days ago he held Miami to two ER through six innings, and last Saturday he limited Colorado to three ER through seven innings.

For the season Kendrick has allowed 10 ER and 26 hits in 25 innings, with six walks and 17 strikeouts.

Philly has split Kendrick's four starts, and three of those games stayed UNDER the totals.

Last year Kendrick started twice against Los Angeles, giving up six ER and 18 hits in 12 innings; the Phillies lost both those games.

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Thursday's Free Pick
That Phillies bullpen concerns us, but when looking for value on tonight's game we lean toward Philadelphia and the underdog price. So we'll go with the Phillies, getting +161 at BetOnline, for our free MLB pick for Thursday.

 

23rd April
Phillies vs. Dodgers Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

LA has now scored a total of 21 runs over its last eight games, and eight of those came in one game.

So the Phillies have won three in a row to reach the .500 mark at 10-10.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers' lead in the NL West is now down to a half-game over second-place Colorado.

The Phillies will try to win this four-game series when the teams meet for Game 3 Wednesday night (10:10 pm ET).

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Wednesday's Line
As of early Wednesday AM Los Angeles and Zack Greinke were favored by around -170 over Philly and Cole Hamels, with a total of 6.5 runs. The Dodgers could also be gotten at around +135 giving the run and a half on the run line.

 

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up
Greinke (3-0, 2.42) is two-for-four on quality starts this year, but only because he was pulled twice before he had thrown six full innings. Over his last two starts, both against Arizona, Greinke allowed two runs in 11 1/3 innings, striking out 16.

Los Angeles is 3-1 in Greinke's starts this year.

Greinke started twice last year against Philly, giving up four runs and 15 hits in 14 1/3 innings. The Dodgers won both those games.

Hamels will be making his first start of this season, after recovering from a sore shoulder. He did some rehab time this spring down at A+ ball in Clearwater, throwing 17 innings, giving up four runs and 12 hits, walking one while striking out 12. 

Hamels went 8-14 with a 3.60 ERA for a bad Philly team last year, but his internals were good, allowing fewer hits, 205, than innings pitched, 220, walking 50 while whiffing 202.

Hamels started once against LA last year, allowing two runs and seven hits in seven innings, walking none while striking out eight, in a 3-2 Philly win in August.

 

Free Pick for Wednesday
Greinke gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, but not by a whole lot. But his Dodgers are having trouble scoring runs at the moment, and they've been worse vs. lefties than righties. Meanwhile, the Phillies are a better-hitting team vs. lefties. We're not sure who's going to win this game, so instead we'll look toward the total for our free pick for Wednesday, and go with the UNDER 6.5 runs.

 

22nd April
Phillies vs. Dodgers Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

So Philly has put up 17 runs in winning back-to-back games.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are now just 5-7 this season against teams not from Arizona.

The Phillies will try to take a 2-0 lead in this series Tuesday night (10:10 pm ET).

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Tuesday's Betting Lines
As of early Tuesday AM most shops were chalking LA and Hyun-Jin Ryu at around -175 over Philly and AJ Burnett, with a total of 6.5 runs. Also, the Dodgers could be gotten on the run line at around +120. 

 
Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up
Ryu (3-1, 1.93) is four-for-five on quality starts this season. In fact, he's allowed runs in just one of his five starts. He started off by holding Arizona and San Diego scoreless through 12 innings; then he got bombed by the Giants for six ER in two innings; but since then, in starts against the Diamondbacks and Giants, he's thrown 14 scoreless innings, allowing just six hits, striking out 11.

LA is 3-2 in Ryu's starts this year, 22-13 for his ML career.

Ryu has started once against the Phillies, last June, when he held them to two runs – both on Chase Utley solo homers - through seven innings of a 4-3 Dodgers victory.

Burnett (0-1, 2.74) is two-for-four on quality starts this year. He opened with a good outing against Texas, but then walked 12 in back-to-back starts against the Cubs and Miami. Last time out, despite dealing with something called an inguinal hernia, he threw seven scoreless innings against Atlanta, allowing three hits and walking just two, in a 1-0 Rangers win.

Last year, pitching for Pittsburgh, Burnett started once against the Dodgers, allowing one run and four hits, walking four but whiffing nine, in 5 1/3 innings of a 1-0 Pirates loss.

Take a look at live MLB World Series Betting Odds

Tuesday's Free Pick
This is a tough one, because while we've had good luck with Ryu, Philly's lineup is pretty good against lefties. And the price on this game looks like it's based more on the expectation that the Dodgers won't lose two in a row than anything else. So from our view, the value on tonight's game is with the Phillies, getting +168 at BetOnline.

 

21st April
Phillies vs. Dodgers Game 1

By: Ron Patrick

 

The Betting Lines
As of Monday morning LA and Paul Maholm were favored by around -115 for Monday's game over Philly and Cliff Lee, with a total of seven runs. Those who like taking chances can get the Dodgers at upwards of +185 giving the run and a half on the run line. 

Also, The Greek had LA lined at -225 to win this series, with Philly getting +185 as the road dog.

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The Situation
Philly just dropped two of three games at Colorado over the weekend, avoiding the sweep with a 10-9 victory Sunday. The Phillies had been held to a total of three runs over their previous four games, but broke lose Sunday with 15 hits, seven for extra bases. 

At 8-10 Philly brings up the rear in the NL East, four games behind first-place Atlanta.

The Dodgers just took two of three games at home from Arizona over the weekend, winning Sunday's rubber match 4-1. Los Angeles also covered the last two games of that series against the run line.

At 12-7 LA leads the NL West by a game over second-place San Francisco.


Monday's Pitching Match-Up
Maholm (0-1, 4.97) is one-for-two on quality starts for his new team this year, to go along with three appearances in relief. Most recently Maholm held San Francisco to one run through six innings of a 2-1 Dodgers loss last Wednesday.

On the season Maholm has allowed 14 hits, including a couple of homers, in 12 2/3 innings, with five walks and four strikeouts. LA has lost both his starts.

Last year, pitching for Atlanta, Maholm started three times against the Phillies, giving up six ER and 22 hits in 17 2/3 innings. The Braves lost two of those three games.

Lee (2-2, 4.00), by our tough accounting, is two-for-four on quality starts. He got bombed by Texas on Opening Day for eight runs in five innings, but since then he's allowed just four runs through 22 innings. Last time out he held Atlanta to one run and struck out 13 in a 1-0 complete-game loss.

For the season Lee has walked just two and whiffed 28, but he's also allowed 40 hits in 27 innings.

Lee started twice against Los Angeles last year, giving up six runs and nine hits in 15 innings; but Philly lost both those games.

The LA bullpen ranks 13th with a 3.45 ERA, but closer Kenley Jansen has allowed runs in four of his last eight appearances.

Philly's pen ranks dead last in the Majors with a 5.80 ERA, and has blown four of nine save chances. That's part of why the Phillies are 10-8 on the OVER/UNDERS so far.


At the Bat
Philly has averaged 4.2 runs per game so far this year, with a team OBP of .320 and 15 homers.

LA has averaged 4.3 RPG, with 20 homers and a league-leading 21 stolen bases.

 
Phillies-Dodgers Betting Trends
LA took the season series from Philly last year five games to two. Also, four of those games stayed UNDER their totals. The Phillies exploded for 16 runs in one of those games, but the other six contests averaged just over six total runs per. 

The OVER/UNDERS are 5-3 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.


Free MLB Pick for Monday
We've give Philly and Lee the advantage in the pitching match-up, but if the Dodgers can work him, and get to that Phillies bullpen, they'll stand a good chance of winning this game. But that can be a big if. Lee went nine innings last time out, and if things go well he might do the same tonight. So in this spot we'll go with the better starter and take Philly, at the +104 offered at SBR Sportsbook, for our free pick on Monday's game.

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