September 5th MLB Picks & Starting Pitching Report

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 5, 2014 12:41 PM GMT

Our MLB betting expert examines a pair of starting pitching matchups tonight that appear very competitive in nature. Inspect the Royals/Yankees and Giants/Tigers matches to find out where he deems the wagering value to be.

Royals vs. Yankees 7:05 PM ET
The AL Central leading Kansas City Royals will send veteran James Shields to the mound tonight for the opening game of this series. Shields has been an ATM machine on the road this season by going 12-4 against the money with a solid 3.32 ERA. As a matter of fact, he’s gone a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 on the road versus the money, with an outstanding 2.14 ERA, and better than 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Royals hurler has displayed overall good form during his most recent 8-starts by compiling a stellar 2.59 ERA.

The Yankees will go with 24-year old right-hander Michael Pineda on the hill. Pineda has been superb in 4-starts since returning from a prolonged stay on the disabled list. In those 4-outings, he had a 2.31 ERA, and 0.91 WHIP. In 3-starts at Yankee Stadium in 2014, he’s posted a terrific 1.50 ERA, and each of those games stayed under the total. Pineda recently faced the Royals on 8/25 at Kansas City in an 8-1 Yankees win. Pineda allowed 1 earned run on just 5-hits in 6 1/3 innings of work. The Yankees hurler has seen just 1 of his 8-starts in 2014 go over the total.

Advantage: As the MLB odds show, Yankees are favored since Pineda hasn’t missed a beat since returning from the DL. James Shields was rocked hard by the Yankees just recently at home. My nod in this one goes to Michael Pineda over James Shields.

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Giants vs. Tigers 7:05 PM ET
The Giants will go with rejuvenated starter Jake Peavy tonight. After enduring his worst season of his career so far in 2014, the Giants newly acquired veteran hurler has came on strong of late. Peavy has gone 3-1 in his last 4 against the money with an excellent 1.26 ERA. Since joining the Giants at the early trade deadline from a deal with the Red Sox, he’s gone 3-4 against the money, and with a very good 2.66 ERA.

The Tigers counter with right-hander Rick Porcello. The Tigers hurler returned after the all-star break from an almost one full calendar year on the disabled list. Since returning, he’s shown no ill effects of the long layoff, as evidenced by a sparkling 2.66 ERA in 7-starts. Porcello has really been sharp in his last 4-appearances posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He’s been especially good in 4-starts at Comerica Park in Detroit where he’s posted a brilliant 1.63 ERA.

Advantage: I know that Jake Peavy has been awfully good over his last 4-outings. However, he will be facing a powerful Tigers lineup tonight, and his time he spent in the American League this season with the Red Sox left a lot to be desired. Rick Porcello continues to get stronger with every start, and certainly has captured my confidence. The betting edge I'll apply to my MLB pick goes to Porcello of the Tigers over Peavy from the Giants.

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