Senzatela to be Sensational Against Padres So Bet Rockies on May 3

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, May 3, 2017 1:06 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 3, 2017 1:06 PM UTC

The Rockies have a rookie pitcher making waves in Antonio Senzatela. On Wednesday, our MLB handicapper finds him in a safe spot to back against the weak-hitting San Diego Padres.

2017 MLB Record: 41-43-2 (-7.50 Units & -7.47% ROI)

Colorado Rockies At San Diego Padres

The Colorado Rockies look to continue their strong start Wednesday night as they continue a road series with the NL West basement-dwelling San Diego Padres. Rookie Antonio Senzatela gets the start for the Rockies, while Jered Weaver miraculously is on an MLB roster and gets the start for the Padres. The Rockies are rightly favored in this game, with odds on the moneyline backing them at -118 at BetOnline. The O/U total can be found at 7.5 to 8 runs depending on where you look across the board.

Senzatela not only has a hard name to type, he has a hard pitch to hit. He is 3-1 on the season over 32 innings pitched, with just a .216 overall batting average against. This is not an abnormal situation for Senzatela, either, as he has allowed a .239 average or less from A-ball in 2014 on to his experience here. With a fastball that sits from 91-97 mph, combined with a slider that sits in the low 80s, Senzatela has a few electric pitches that will keep him competitive in any game. The Rockies of course were interested in his elevated ground ball rates early in his career, and although those have normalized a bit the control he executes with is still excellent. Senzatela has picked up a 1.00 WHIP on the season, and even though he gives up a 93.5% contact rate on pitches in the zone most of that contact is soft.

I bet you all are surprised that I typed that long without railing on San Diego's Weaver, but I am not one to disappoint. I’ve been fading him all year and his last game out was no exception – a 6-2 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Weaver gave up 3 ding-dongs in that game, bringing his HR/FB rate to a career high 28.6%. For someone putting up a batted-ball profile that includes 51.1% pulled balls, that should be expected. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; pulled balls are gone balls.

With Weaver's diminished velocity, there are a few indicators that he is not becoming the next Jamie Moyer. For one, his change-up velocity is only about 6 mph different than his fastball. For reference, a 10-mph velocity or more is needed most of the time to force weak contact from a batter. Moyer had about an 8-mph difference in his heyday, so in relative terms about 10%. The other sign would be Weaver's FIP of 7.29 through 28.2 innings this year. That just sucks. For that reason, I will gladly take the Rockies in this game at just -118 on the moneyline at BetOnline as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Rockies -118Best Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140600, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,999993,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here